Future of work
A curated resource of recent research on trends shaping Canada's labour market.
Tariffs can have complex, long-term, and occasionally difficult-to-predict effects on society, labour markets, and the economy. To address this, researchers across Canada have been developing projections and estimates of potential tariff impacts so industries and Canadians alike can be more prepared.
RBC’s Thought Leadership team developed a “playbook” for measuring the impact of tariffs on Canada’s economy.
The team notes that tariffs on softwood lumber and steel and aluminum in 2017 and 2018, respectively, offered significant lessons. However, it also notes that, due to the smaller scale and magnitude of those tariffs, we should not expect their impacts to serve as a direct model for current projections.
To estimate the impacts of tariffs, the team looked at several measures. First, it determined the top 15 industries with trade-to-GDP ratios greater than 200% and the total number of Canadians employed in each of these industries. This allowed the team to estimate the industries in which Canada might expect to be most vulnerable to tariffs. The team also assessed the integration of markets by country and the potential tariff revenue compared to the share of consumer spending.
Collectively, these data and approaches allowed the researchers to assemble a more comprehensive composite picture of the potential impacts of tariffs on various industries.