Overview
| Name | Ontario Occupation Outlook |
| Author | Ministry of Labour, Training and Skills Development |
| Contact | Ontario's labour market |
| Timing | 5-year outlook, updated every two years |
| Outputs | Ontario Job Profiles |
The Ontario outlook estimates total openings (labour demand) for all 500 occupations at the 4-digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) level and includes job outlook ratings for 228 occupations (272 occupations are not qualitatively reviewed, and their ratings are not published).
Methodology
The Ontario outlooks are not based on an in-house model but combine various data sources - including occupational projections from Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) - to derive job outlooks by occupation.
Data Sources
Ontario’s outlook is based on the following sources.
ESDC uses the models of the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) to develop and publish a country-wide estimate of labour demand, supply and imbalances. Provincial estimates are also developed for the demand side only (i.e., expansion and replacement demand) by occupation at the 4-digit NOC level and are shared with provincial governments, including Ontario, for further development.
ESDC produces an assessment of recent labour market conditions for 292 occupational groups (i.e., with smaller occupations combined) as being in shortage, surplus or balanced. These are publicly available at the national level. As part of the qualitative assessment for its own job outlook, Ontario also reviews ESDC’s 3-year job outlook ratings at the Economic Region level through its Explore the Market option on Job Bank.
Online Job Posting Data
Ontario also purchases data on job postings from a private-sector provider (Burning Glass Technologies), which are obtained by scraping employer websites and job boards. The data are organized according to standard and proprietary classifications (e.g., NOC, Burning Glass Occupation Family).
Identification of Imbalances
To identify any labour market imbalances, first, each occupation is assessed based on a weighted total of indicators (see Table 1).
Table 1. Indicators that Inform Labour Market Analysis
| Source | Indicator | Weight |
| Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) | Average projected employment growth | 30% |
| Forecast attrition rate
Total replacement demand over the projection period as a proportion of total employment in the base year |
30% | |
| Recent Labour Market Conditions (ESDC) | Score assigned based on model assessment
Balance = 2.5 Surplus = 4 Shortage = 1 |
30% |
| Online Job Posting Data | Job posting rate
Total online job postings as a proportion of total employment in the same base year |
10% |
| Total | 100% | |
Summing the weighted indicators for each occupation provides a weighted index. Then, the occupations are ranked based on their index values. Finally, the list is divided into four quartiles. Each occupation is given a job outlook rating based on which quartile it falls into. A qualitative review follows the quantitative analysis and then outlooks are compared with previous findings. Sectoral insights are also considered, particularly where groups have expertise in occupational modelling. Interpretation insights are provided to better make sense of the ratings (see Table 2).
Table 2. Interpretations for Each Job Outlook Rating
| Quartile | Rating | Interpretation |
| 1st quartile | Above average | Above average labour market conditions usually mean that, relative to the employment situation overall, there is a better likelihood of finding stable work in this occupation. Employment prospects are attractive or improving. |
| 2nd and 3rd quartiles | Average | Average labour market conditions indicate that jobs are expected to be more difficult to find than those in the first quartile. The probability of unemployment is higher, and wages and salaries have recently increased at a slower pace than for those occupations rated as "above average." On the other hand, jobs are easier to find, unemployment is less likely, and wages and salaries have recently increased at a faster pace than for those occupations rated as "below average." |
| 4th quartile | Below average | Below average labour market conditions mean that it is more difficult to find stable work or that employment prospects are either not attractive or are deteriorating relative to those in other industries or occupations. For new entrants, such as people leaving school and immigrants, "below average" labour market conditions mean a lower probability of finding stable work in this occupation and lower potential for rising pay. |
Applications
The Ontario outlook results are distributed and used in many ways.
Individual Canadians
Individual Canadians can access the results through the Government of Ontario Labour Market website. The website features 500 job profiles to help learners and job seekers explore their first or next career, and identify opportunities for relevant education, training and re-skilling.
Employment Policies and Programs
- Applicants to Employment Ontario’s Second Career program must provide labour market research that demonstrates good employment opportunities within Ontario for the occupations associated with the skills training they are requesting.
- Outlook data are also used to assess new university and college programs for ministry funding approval.
Immigration Policies and Programs
Results are used as evidence to support in the development of Ontario’s immigration policy decisions for the Ontario Immigrant Nominee Program (OINP) and for Ontario’s input into federal immigration planning.