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Social interactions in pandemics: Fear, altruism, and reciprocity. NBER Working Paper 27134. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.

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Predicting the spread of disease is difficult without also accounting for human behaviour. This is especially important as countries consider optimal policy responses to guide the re-opening of their respective economies since excessive precautionary behaviour may trigger demand spirals and dampen recovery. Combining an SIR-network model with Apple COVID daily mobility data for 89 cities around the world, fear is seen to have a negative impact on mobility (walking, driving, transit use) at the city level. Moreover, the direct effect of explicit regulations restricting mobility are muted in cases where individuals are more patient, have higher degrees of altruism and exhibit less negative reciprocity, signalling a higher likelihood that groups of people are linked to each other.

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