Future of work

Using micro simulation projection model, the labour force is projected up to 2031 based on five scenarios assessing labour shortage concerns, ethno-cultural and educational composition of the labour force and participation rates. The demographic mechanisms which will affect the size and composition of the labour are assessed in detail along with the impact on labour force growth and participation rates based on varying levels of immigration.

Three alternative assumptions are made regarding future participation rates:

1. Extrapolation of trends observed between 1999-2008;
2. Age and education-specific activity remains constant at 2010 levels (“constant participation rate”); and,
3. No differentials in labour force participation rates between immigrants and ethno-cultural groups.

Based on these three assumptions, five scenarios are generated. The first three scenarios adopt the first assumption and allow the overall population growth rate to vary (high, low, and medium growth). The fourth and fifth scenarios use the medium population growth assumption, and apply the second and third assumptions listed above, respectively.

Immigration is found to be the main growth driver of the working-age population over the projected period. Other demographic drivers had impact on labour force size but little impact on labour force participation rates. The projected labour force will be older, with higher number of foreign born and visible minority workers, and expansion of Canadian-born workers. In terms of education, the share of degree-holders in the labour force will double between 2006 and 2031, from 22% to 44%.