Future of work
A curated resource of recent research on trends shaping Canada's labour market.
The study uses the Labour Force Survey to assess the extent to which an aging population has contributed to gradual decline in labour force participation rates in recent years in Canada. The authors use the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition technique to analyze the joint impact of several compositional effects on the participation rate.
The main hypothesis is that an older workforce may lead to “extended periods of slow growth” as an older population requires more government support and leads to a shrinking tax base, fewer work hours, health problems and labour shortages. The findings show that fewer people are entering the labour force than exiting. The ratio of youths aged 15 to 24 to the 55-64 age group is 0.9 in 2016 which is below replacement. As illustrated by projections, this trend will continue over the next two decades.
The study specifically finds that the labour force participation rate among the age group 55 and over has increased from 1996 to 2016 (36% of the labour force belongs to the age group 55 and over in 2016). The factors leading to this increase are also explored in the study. The employment share of the age group 55 and over is expected to increase to 40% by 2026. Conversely, proportion of core-age workers (ages 25-54) is expected to decline to 46% by 2026.