Future of work
A curated resource of recent research on trends shaping Canada's labour market.
This report highlights the impact of automation on the labour market with respect to the disruption to and creation of jobs by 2030. It is framed around three questions: Will there be enough work in the future to maintain full employment? Which occupations will grow? And, how will skills and wages be affected?
Overall, it is found that automation will boost economic growth and productivity but will significantly alter the distribution of jobs and the demand for skills. Due to the increase in productivity, it is expected that full employment levels may be maintained, provided that people are able to successfully and quickly change careers (within one year). As the share of job tasks become automated, the distribution of occupations and related skills will change. In advanced economies, the demand for physical labour will decrease, while employment for professionals, care providers, and managers/executives is predicted to increase. All workers are advised to focus on building skills that are hard to automate, such as social, emotional, and high-cognitive skills.
The effects of automation on wages will depend on the success of disrupted workers in changing careers. If re-employment is slow, greater than one year for example, frictional unemployment will place downward pressure on wages. For advanced economies, such as the United States, job polarization could be exacerbated, whereas for emerging economies, middle class wages may rise and reduce polarization.