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The cost of the COVID-19 crisis: Lockdowns, macroeconomic expectations, and consumer spending. NBER Working Paper 27141. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.

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Using large-scale surveys representative of US households, the authors assess the impact of different timings of local COVID-19 lockdowns on household spending, income/wealth losses and macroeconomic expectations. They found a significant decline in consumer spending and pronounced reductions in income and wealth. Close to 50% of respondents reported wealth losses ranging from $5,293 to $33,482. Households in counties with earlier lockdown dates predicted that the unemployment rate would rise 13 percentage points over the next twelve months and continue to increase over the next three to five years. Lower inflation, higher uncertainty and lower mortgage rates are also expected over the next decade. The authors note that their analysis is limited to the immediate effects of lockdowns and thus likely understate the impact of the pandemic.

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