Future of work

This report analyses the impact of automation on work activities and global productivity. It is shown that automation can boost annual global productivity growth by anywhere from 0.8 to 1.4%. In addition, it is found that approximately 50% of work activities have the potential to be automated by adapting current technology. Nevertheless, this does not equate directly to job loss as less than 5% of occupations are found to be fully automatable; it does, however, imply a restructuring. Furthermore, it is estimated that those workers who are disrupted will find other employment. To contextualise the effects, the paper compares the situation to the shift away from agriculture in the United States in the 19th and early 20th century: Although some jobs were lost, other jobs were created.

Five factors influencing the pace and form of automation are identified. The first is technical feasibility. It takes time to research, identify, and decide how to incorporate new technology. Second, creating and implementing technical solutions requires capital investment and can be costly. Labour costs from training and losses due to temporary skill mismatches are a third factor that will influence the pace and form of automation. Finally, the economic benefits, and both social and regulatory acceptance must be considered. The public may be opposed to automation if they expect large job-losses, for example, and workplace safety and liability issues must be also address.