Long-term joblessness: A significant policy challenge on the horizon? Toronto, ON: C. D. Howe Institute.
By September 2020, more than 1.3 million Canadians had been out of work for more than six months. This article suggests that this trend will likely persist because of both the direct impact (e.g., business closures) and indirect impact (e.g., economic decline) of the current health crisis. They focus on key policy concerns and opportunities…Read More
Social dialogue, skills and COVID-19: The global deal for decent work and inclusive growth flagship report. Paris, France: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/Geneva: Switzerland: International Labour Organization.
This report illustrates the importance of social dialogue in managing the consequences of the pandemic. It also outlines the benefits of involving social partners in adult-learning systems to prepare for the future of work. While technological change is creating skill shortages, strong adult-learning systems are needed to prevent skills depreciation and to facilitate transitions…Read More
Economic impacts and recovery related to the pandemic. A presentation series from Statistics Canada about the economy, environment and society. Catalogue no. 11-631-X. Ottawa, ON: Statistics Canada.
This report emphasizes that although economic output is recovering as businesses reopen, stark differences exist across sectors. For example, output in accommodation and food services in June 2020 was at 55% of the pre-pandemic level. Among those who lost their jobs, youth, less-educated workers, women, recent immigrants and temporary employees have been hit hardest. The…Read More
Temporary unemployment and labor market dynamics during the COVID-19 recession. NBER Working Paper 27924.
This paper creates a search-and-matching model that incorporates temporary unemployment. Applying this model to study the labour market dynamics of COVID-19 in the US, the authors find that current models — which do not distinguish between temporary and permanent employment — overestimate the time to recover employment levels.Read More
Unemployed with jobs and without jobs. NBER Working Paper 27886. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
To analyze the rapid decline of the unemployment rate, this paper defines different types of unemployment: recall-unemployment and jobless-unemployment. The authors state that recall-unemployment (workers on furlough or temporary layoff) has become an important part of labour dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, many of the recent reversals in unemployment have been associated…Read More
The future of jobs report 2020. Geneva, Switzerland: World Economic Forum.
This report paints a grim picture of the future, arguing that the COVID-19 recession and automation are causing a double disruption for workers. With the pandemic, the window of opportunity to reskill and upskill workers has become shorter. The report estimates that job creation is slowing, while job destruction is accelerating. By 2025, redundant…Read More
Early impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on household finances in Quebec. Canadian Public Policy, 46(S3), S217–S235.
This study reviews the pandemic’s impact on household finances and unemployment levels in Quebec. It provides a demographic breakdown of which group suffered job losses, reductions in working hours and consequently income reduction because of COVID-19. Moreover, it explains how households reacted to the crisis to smooth their spending in choosing to withdraw savings,…Read More
ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work, 6th ed. Geneva, Switzerland: International Labour Organization.
The sixth edition of the ILO Monitor gives an update on the effects of COVID-19 on the global labour market. The key take-away is that 94% of the world’s workers still live in countries with workplace closures. Upper-middle-income countries have been adopting more stringent rules to curb the numbers of cases, a trend not followed…Read More
The challenge of designing income support programs for the self-employed. Toronto/Montreal: Finances of the Nation.
This article reports that between February and April 2020, aggregate hours worked by self-employed individuals fell by 57% among the unincorporated, and by 52% among the incorporated. In comparison, aggregate hours worked by paid employees in the private sector fell by 33% and in the public sector by 17%. This article emphasizes, however, that self-employed…Read More
How much could a guaranteed annual income cost? Vancouver, BC: Fraser Institute.
Implementation of the Canada Emergency Response Benefit due to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to increasing interest in a universal basic income or guaranteed annual income (GAI). This report provides insights on how much such a program could cost, as well as the trade-off and implementation problems that might arise. The report compares four types…Read More