Coronavirus (COVID-19): Living with uncertainty. OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Uncertainty is a recurring subject in the COVID-19 pandemic; this paper focuses on three key areas of uncertainty. First, the author analyzes how uncertainty remains high and confidence is fragile for both households and businesses in the face of only gradual recovery. Second, projections show only moderate output growth due to the decrease in confidence,…Read More
Pandemics through the lens of occupations. NBER Working Paper 27841. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
The authors of this paper develop a macroeconomic pandemic model where economic activity increases the risk of infection, while lockdowns reduce infections but at the cost of a worse recession. The model focuses on the endogenous choice by individuals of whether to work from home or in the market. These results are calibrated to Canadian…Read More
Labour market flows and worker trajectories in Canada during COVID-19. Working Paper #32. Waterloo, ON: Canadian Labour Economics Forum.
This paper uses the Labour Force Survey (LFS) to measure the scope of worker reallocation in Canada from the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic through mid-summer 2020. While most recently laid-off individuals have regained employment, high labour market churning persists even after the easing of social-distancing restrictions. Furthermore, results suggest re-employment difficulties for those who…Read More
Transitions into and out of employment by immigrants during the COVID-19 lockdown and recovery. StatCan COVID-19: Data to Insights for a Better Canada. Ottawa, ON: Statistics Canada, Government of Canada.
Using the Labour Force Survey, this paper looks at employment differences for immigrants and Canadians between the ages of 20 and 64 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results suggest a larger increase in the rate of transition to non-employment for immigrants, especially recent female immigrants. The authors associate these results with shorter job tenure and over-representation…Read More
Economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Canadian businesses across firm size classes. Economic Insight. Catalogue no. 11-626-X — 2020017 – No. 119. Ottawa, ON: Statistics Canada, Government of Canada.
By looking at two measures of economic activity, this paper analyzes the impact on Canadian businesses of economic restrictions and unprecedented government intervention adopted during COVID-19. The measures used are 1) hours worked by employees engaged in production and 2) the real output. The analysis shows that hours worked declined in Q1 2020 for both…Read More
COVID 19: Key issues for Atlantic Canada’s economy, Issue 1. Halifax, NS: Atlantic Provinces Economic Council.
This report highlights the economic effects and the recovery outlook of the COVID-19 pandemic for Atlantic Canada. Within the first two months of the pandemic, the economic impact in Atlantic Canada was similar to the rest of Canada. However, the region began recovering faster. By July 2020, it had regained 61% of all jobs lost,…Read More
Commuting to work during COVID-19. STATCAN COVID-19: Data to Insights for a better Canada. Catalogue no. 45280001. Ottawa, ON: Statistics Canada.
The modes of transportation used by Canadian workers have certainly changed since the COVID-19 outbreak. The number of commuters has dropped considerably in order to contain the spread of the virus. To examine these changes over the course of the pandemic, Statistics Canada conducted a third wave of the Canadian Perspectives Survey Series (CPSS) from…Read More
Automation and reallocation: Will COVID-19 usher in the future of work? Canadian Public Policy, 46(S2), S192–S202.
Recent evidence from the United States shows that recessions can promote automation and the reallocation of productive resources critical to long-run aggregate productivity growth. This study presents evidence suggesting similar results for Canada by constructing industry-level measures of worker exposure to COVID-19 and the fraction of routine employment using the Labour Force Survey (LFS). Results…Read More
Policy brief: Education during COVID-19 and beyond.
Almost 1.6 billion learners in more than 190 countries have been disrupted by COVID-19. Opportunities to learn for those living in poor or rural areas, women, persons with disabilities, refugees, and forcibly displaced persons have been reduced. Another 23.8 million youth may drop out or not have access to school next year. Closures of educational…Read More
This time it’s different: The role of women’s employment in a pandemic recession. NBER Working Paper 27660. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
This paper argues that in previous US recessions, men experienced higher rates of unemployment than women; however, in the current recession, it is the reverse. Women have experienced high levels of unemployment because their jobs are concentrated in sectors hit hard by the pandemic, such as food services and tourism, and because of increased childcare…Read More