Nearly 350 senior risk professionals participated in a COVID-19 Risks Perception Survey. This report taps into that data to provide a preliminary picture of amplified and emerging risks due to the pandemic. Four key areas of significant challenge emerge as global concerns: 1) economic risks, 2) environmental risks, 3) societal risks and 4) cybersecurity risks.…Read More

This paper looks at the impact of social distancing on emissions and the resulting expected health effects in the United States. Reduced personal vehicle travel and electricity consumption are the two key factors. Using cell phone mobility data, the authors found that vehicle travel dropped 40% by mid-April and electricity consumption fell by about 6%.…Read More

This paper looks at the new Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) that was part of the United States’ initial response to COVID-19. Using data on the distribution of PPP loans and high-frequency micro-level employment data, they found a disproportionate allocation to areas less affected by the crisis. Areas exposed to banks with a higher PPP lending…Read More

This paper uses the SIR (Susceptible–Infectious–Recovered) model to help both researchers and policymakers better understand the spread and ultimate containment of an infection. In this model, those who recover are immune to the disease and thus the susceptible population declines over time. Using three groups — young (20–44), middle-aged (45–65) and older (65+) — the…Read More

Using large-scale surveys representative of US households, the authors assess the impact of different timings of local COVID-19 lockdowns on household spending, income/wealth losses and macroeconomic expectations. They found a significant decline in consumer spending and pronounced reductions in income and wealth. Close to 50% of respondents reported wealth losses ranging from $5,293 to $33,482.…Read More

Predicting the spread of disease is difficult without also accounting for human behaviour. This is especially important as countries consider optimal policy responses to guide the re-opening of their respective economies since excessive precautionary behaviour may trigger demand spirals and dampen recovery. Combining an SIR-network model with Apple COVID daily mobility data for 89 cities…Read More

To help understand global pandemic diffusion patterns, the authors examine the relationship between COVID-19 mortality rates and specific country-level policy interventions aimed to limit social contact. COVID-19 policy and case data was collected by Oxford University and John Hopkins University, Apple mobility data and various controls. As well, OECD and Emerging Market data for the…Read More

This study examines pre-2020 corporate characteristics that make firms more resilient to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors compare the stock price performance of over 6000 firms across 56 countries for Q1 of 2020 considering five characteristics: 1) financial condition (e.g., cash flow or profitability), 2) international supply chain and customer location exposure…Read More

Using data from the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene and the American Community Survey, this paper finds that COVID-19 tests were distributed at nearly the exact same rate across income levels as measured by zip code. The 10% of the richest areas and 10% of the poorest received 11% and 10%…Read More