Why we're doing this project
To ensure that policy makers and stakeholders have up-to-date information and insights on recent labour market and social developments.
What the project is about
The Now of Work Annotated Bibliography features summaries of recent reports examining the implications of COVID-19. It will be updated regularly as new reports become available.
New entries added on 2021-03-30 are marked with a 🚩 symbol.
Tam, S., Sood, S., & Johnston, C. (2021, March 10). Impact of COVID-19 on small businesses in Canada, first quarter of 2021. StatCan COVID-19: Data to Insights for a Better Canada. Catalogue no. 45280001. Ottawa, ON: Statistics Canada, Government of Canada.
Key Takeaway: Small businesses are not yet expected to see a sharp increase in profitability, nor the ability to hire more employees/adopt technologies.
This analysis covers how COVID-19 negatively impacted small businesses across Canada. Following the onset of the pandemic, Canada experienced a drastic drop in its real gross domestic product (GDP), with the economy contracting 18.2% between March and April 2020. From mid-January to mid-February 2021, Statistics Canada conducted the Canadian Survey on Business Conditions, which showed that smaller businesses expected more significant impacts, such as a decrease in profitability and sales. Despite making 50% or more of their total sales online, small businesses are not expected to see a sharp increase in profitability nor the ability to hire more employees. Compared to much bigger organizations, small businesses are also not going to be able to adopt technologies such as collaboration tools and cloud solutions, which will render them less competitive. This bleak outlook has the potential to affect the whole economy, given that small businesses make up 98% of all employer businesses in Canada.
Rosenbaum, Z., Betsis, L., & Amery, B. (2021, March 8). Women in recessions: What makes COVID-19 different? LMI Insight Report no. 39. Ottawa, ON: Labour Market Information Council.
Key Takeaway: Women have been disproportionately impacted during the COVID-19 pandemic and have experienced a slower recovery than men.
Women have faced a disproportionate impact from COVID-19 on several fronts. First, women are overrepresented in some of the hardest-hit sectors, such as retail and accommodation and food services, that rely on face-to-face contact. Second, other employment vulnerabilities were also exposed by the pandemic. Women represent 58% of employment in low-income earning occupations and have suffered a larger loss of employment than their male counterparts. Third, the impact on working mothers has also been difficult even for those who retained their jobs. Their average hours worked fell steeply, particularly for mothers with young children, during the initial wave of the pandemic in the spring of 2020.
Koebel, K., Pohler, D., Gomez, R., & Mohan, A. (2021, March 2). Public policy in a time of crisis: A framework for evaluating Canada’s COVID-19 income support programs. Canadian Public Policy.
Key Takeaway: Balancing efficiency, equity and voice should be the main objective of income support programs in the time of COVID-19 and beyond.
This study evaluates Canadian income support programs introduced for workers during the first wave of COVID-19, specifically the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) and the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS). The study uses a framework that proposes balancing efficiency, equity and voice (EEV) as the main objective of crisis labour market policies. The authors argue that a targeted basic universal income in addition to employment insurance (EI) would have achieved the optimal balance between the three EEV objectives better than the combination of the CERB/CEWS.
Messacar, D., Handler, T., & Frenette, M. (2021, March 2). Predicted earnings losses from graduating during COVID-19. Canadian Public Policy.
Key Takeaway: Those who graduate in 2021 can expect to lose 5–12% of total annual income that would have been earned in the absence of the pandemic.
This paper explores how COVID-19 and the lockdown imposed to stop the spread of the virus have resulted in a significant decline in the labour market prospects of graduates otherwise poised to enter the market at a time when conditions were generally favourable. The authors predict that 2021 graduates will lose between 5% and 12% of the total annual income that would have been earned had the pandemic not occurred. Additionally, the authors illustrate how high school graduates may be greatly impacted by the current economic crisis. In such uncertain times, the authors advocate for long–term public measures such as job search assistance programs and facilitating access to post-secondary education. Such measures would assist the transition of Canadians to occupations requiring higher education, which are far less likely to face a high-risk of job transformation due to automation in the future.
International Labour Organization. (2021, February 17). The youth and COVID-19: Access to decent jobs amid the pandemic. Ankara, Turkey: ILO.
Key Takeaway: A high rate of youth not in employment, education or training has psychological and sociological implications as well as financial ones.
This research explores the impact of COVID-19 on youth in host and refugee communities in Turkey. Using qualitative and quantitative data collected from 15 May to 10 August 2020, the report focuses on youth “not in employment, education or training (NEET).” The report argues that a high rate of youth with NEET status cannot be categorized only as a financial problem. The psychological and sociological implications extend not only to youth but also to the entire society. Additionally, the report highlights how COVID-19 has exacerbated an economic crisis that will negatively impact refugees and women for years to come. To address these issues, the report recommends recognizing free, quality education as a human right, monitoring school attendance to decrease drop-out rates, implementing an education-first approach and enabling comprehensive programs such as Youth Guarantees that are needed to re–engage NEET youth in employment.
Hogarth, T. (2021, February). COVID-19 and the demand for labour and skills in Europe: Early evidence and implications for migration policy. Brussels, Belgium: Migration Policy Institute.
Key Takeaway: Policy makers need to ensure that the economic downturn will not undo the progress made in addressing labour challenges in Europe.
This paper explores how COVID-19 will make it harder to address the pervasive skills and labour challenges that the European Union was already facing before the pandemic hit. Failure to sufficiently invest in skills during these troubled times may have implications for how quickly European economies will recover. Investing in building the skills of resident workers, as well as those migrating into Europe, will likely continue to play a role in meeting labour market needs. The author emphasizes that policy makers must ensure that the economic downturn will not undo progress made in the recent past. A transparent system is required to indicate where there are needs and why immigration is the right tool to meet them. European success will hinge on migrants’ successful labour market integration and participation in the labour force.
Jenkins, F., & Smith, J. (2021, January 7). Work-from-home during COVID-19: Accounting for the care economy to build back better. The Economic and Labour Relations Review.
Work-from-home has been hailed as a short-term solution to stop the spread of COVID-19. However, acting as if an employee’s home is a cost-less resource, free for appropriation in an emergency, ignores how the home functions as a site of gendered relations of care and labour. The uneven burden of dealing with this pandemic has been downplayed, with employers tending to depict themselves as flexible rather than as demanding the use of this once-personal space. The authors argue that home has become a backbone of economic recovery and new policies should reflect that. Building back better would require programs for rapid, small-scale investments to adapt dwellings, neighbourhoods, local retail centres and localities to these new, more intensive demands on them.
Bonen, T., & Oschinski, M. (2021, January 6). Mapping Canada’s training ecosystem: Much needed and long overdue. IRPP Insight, 34. Montreal, QC: Institute for Research on Public Policy.
The authors argue that Canada needs a comprehensive information system that links the skills acquired through training and education programs to those sought in the job market. This system should have the following interlocking components: 1) a database of training and education programs and providers; 2) a classification system of skills and other job requirements that reflects how job seekers and employers talk about skills; and 3) a way to link the training database to skills and other work requirements. They propose these three components should guide the creation of a data repository that is kept up to date with constant user feedback. They note, however, that designing and implementing each of these components is a massive undertaking requiring collaboration between employers, training providers and government agencies at all levels. Nevertheless, they argue that this effort will pay off in the long term and lead to actionable data on the training options available to workers, while linking those data to in-demand jobs.
Como, R., Hambley, L., & Domene, J. (2021, January). An exploration of work–life wellness and remote work during and beyond COVID-19. Canadian Journal of Career Development, 20(1), 46–56.
Key Takeaway: Organizations and employees will need continued support to find suitable remote work arrangements beyond the pandemic.
The paper reviews literature on COVID-19, remote work and work–life wellness. It concludes that the work–life wellness of remote workers may be impacted by a lack of organizational support during the transition to remote work, combined with COVID-19 related stresses. Although remote workers had slightly higher job satisfaction and lower stress compared to traditional workers, their wellness could be impacted by overwork and by work interfering with personal life. Career development practitioners can help clients by being aware of how home dynamics, COVID-19 stress and overwork can complicate the transition to remote work. Organizations and employees will need continued support to find the best-suited remote work scenarios during and beyond the pandemic.
Helliwell, J. F., Schellenberg, G., & Fonberg, J. (2020, December 21). The COVID-19 pandemic and life satisfaction in Canada. StatCan COVID-19: Data to Insights for a Better Canada. Catalogue no. 45280001. Ottawa, ON: Statistics Canada, Government of Canada.
This study compares the life satisfaction of Canadians before and during the COVID‑19 pandemic using population-representative samples from the 2018 Canadian Community Health Survey and the June 2020 Canadian Perspectives Survey Series. It finds that the average life satisfaction among Canadians declined by 1.38 points, from 8.09 on the 0–10 scale in 2018 to 6.71 in 2020. This is the lowest level of life satisfaction observed in Canada over the 2003–2020 period for which comparable data are available. The study finds that from 2018 to 2020, the share of Canadians rating their life satisfaction as 8 or above fell from 72% to 40%, while the share rating their life satisfaction as 6 or below increased from 12% to 40%.
Prokopenko, E., & Kevins, C. (2020, December 15). Vulnerabilities related to COVID-19 among LGBTQ2+ Canadians. StatCan COVID-19: Data to Insights for a Better Canada. Catalogue no. 45280001. Ottawa, ON: Statistics Canada, Government of Canada.
As there is not yet a dataset focused on LGBTQ2S+ Canadians during the COVID‑19 pandemic, this article explores the inequalities in income, financial security and housing insecurity between LGBTQ2S+ and non‑LGBTQ2S+ Canadians that existed prior to the pandemic and could be exacerbated by it. These inequalities include LGBTQ2S+ Canadians having lower incomes, which can partially be explained by them being younger, less likely to identify as male, and having a higher risk of job loss. LGBTQ2S+ Canadians are also more likely to experience some type of homelessness or housing insecurity in their lifetime. The article suggests that this might be impacted by LGBTQ2S+ Canadians being more likely to be rejected from the parental home and be living with family or friends for lack of other options.
Tobin, S., & Sweetman, A. (2020, December 14). IZA COVID-19 crisis response monitoring: Canada (November 2020). Bonn, Germany: IZA Institute of Labor Economics.
The authors discuss the groups most impacted by the pandemic in Canada and review the suite of government measures introduced, including issues regarding fiscal viability. In particular, the authors highlight that during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in March and April 2020, Canada lost more jobs than it had in the past three recessions combined. The labour market recovered most of those losses, but employment gains slowed and continued to weigh especially on youth, low-wage workers, women and workers in hard-hit industries. Like many other OECD countries, the ongoing sustainability of public finances depends primarily on interest rates remaining low and on phasing out pandemic-related measures reasonably quickly. The increase in debt will affect the ability of Canadian federal and provincial governments to address major pre-COVID structural issues such as population aging and climate change.
Wyonch, R. (2020, December 1). The next wave: Automation and Canada’s labour market. Commentary No. 585. Toronto, ON: C.D. Howe Institute.
Using data from Statistics Canada, the author estimates that only 22% of employment is at high risk from automation. Past research overestimates job loss risk due to automation at 42%. The agriculture, natural resources, utilities and manufacturing sectors are at high risk of automation as compared to health, law, education and government services. The research highlights the fact that underrepresented demographic groups, such as Black and Indigenous workers, are more susceptible to these job losses through automation as compared to men, women, and immigrants. The analysis also recommends investment in job-training and income support for the unemployed and low-income earners facing coverage gaps in employment insurance due to job loss from automation.
Tam, S., Sood, S., & Johnston, C. (2020, November 25). Impact of COVID-19 on businesses majority-owned by visible minorities, third quarter of 2020. StatCan COVID-19: Data to Insights for a Better Canada. Catalogue no. 45280001. Ottawa, ON: Statistics Canada.
This report analyzes the disparate impact of COVID-19 on businesses that are majority-owned by visible minorities. The findings show that 24.7% of these businesses reported a decrease of 40% or more in revenue in August 2020 compared to revenues in August 2019, compared to 21.1% of all businesses in Canada. In addition, only a quarter of these businesses reported that they had the ability to take on more debt, compared to 36.6% of all businesses. The report also highlights that businesses majority-owned by visible minorities were more likely to be approved for funding or credit.
Desjardins, D., & Freestone, C. (2020, November 19). Canadian women continue to exit the labour force. Toronto, ON: Royal Bank of Canada.
This report highlights that even as more men join the workforce, Canadian women continue to retreat from it due to COVID-19, risking an erosion of skills. This may in turn exacerbate the gender wage gap. According to the report, more than 20,000 women fell out of the labour force between February and October 2020), mostly because more of their jobs are in the hardest-hit industries and are less conducive to working remotely. In comparison, nearly 68,000 men joined the labour force over the same period. The report reveals that women in two key cohorts (20–24 and 35–39) are exiting the labour force faster, with the younger cohort choosing to return to school and the older one opting to look after their children.
Gingrich, M., & Rowlinson, M. (2020, November 5). Revitalizing Canada’s manufacturing economy for a post-COVID world. Ottawa, ON: Public Policy Forum.
The authors argue that the COVID-19 pandemic has made it clear that Canada needs a strong domestic manufacturing sector to produce what it needs (i.e., essential medical and personal protective equipment in time of crisis). The last 20 years has seen a severe decline in manufacturing in Canada, which has led to stagnant wages and reliance on imports. The solution proposed in this report is straightforward: develop a national manufacturing strategy. By bringing the supply chains home, defining what “Made in Canada” means, funding better training programs and investing heavily in modernization and infrastructure, Canada could revitalize its manufacturing system for post-pandemic recovery. This does not mean going back on old policies directed at expanding export markets, however, but rather considering policies that revitalize the sector and benefit communities across the country, while reducing environmental impact.
Bleakney, A., Masoud, H., & Robertson, H. (2020, November 2). Labour market impacts of COVID-19 on Indigenous people: March to August 2020. StatCan COVID-19: Data to Insights for a Better Canada. Ottawa, ON: Statistics Canada, Government of Canada.
Using the Labour Force Survey (LFS) for March to August 2020, this paper examines how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted labour market conditions among Indigenous people living off reserve. While the initial impacts of the pandemic were similar among Indigenous and non-Indigenous people, recovery has been slower for Indigenous people. Particularly for Indigenous women, employment levels have remained further from their pre-pandemic levels than for Indigenous men. The employment rate of Indigenous women further declined between June and August 2020, while recovery occurred for Indigenous men during that period.
Webb, A., McQuaid, R., & Rand, S. (2020, November). Employment in the informal economy: Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic. International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, 40(9/10), 1005–1019.
This work addresses current definitional understandings of informal employment, conceptual approaches to explain its participation, and solutions to support informal economies in transitioning to more formal avenues of employment. Informal economies disproportionately employ young, immigrant, minority, and female groups. Informal employment encompasses work that does not follow employment and tax regulations but is otherwise legal and legitimate. The nature of informal employment is often associated with precarious/involuntary work hours, insufficient social protection, and lack of collective action to improve working conditions. The authors propose that COVID-19 may represent a catalyst in improving the support of informal employment by public institutions. Results suggest that governments need to consider explicit support for informal workers to create fair, resilient, ethical structures to allow for transition to more formal employment. They also find that the motivation to participate in informal employment is incentivized by the increase in remote work, the online purchasing supply chain, and job insecurity among developed economies.
Doucet, A., Mathieu, S., & McKay, L. (2020, October 26). Reconceptualizing parental leave benefits in COVID-19 Canada: From employment policy to care and social protection policy. Canadian Public Policy, 46(S3), S272–S286.
The unprecedented impact of COVID-19 on the labour force and the provision of childcare have given rise to criticism of childcare policy. However, little attention has been awarded to parental leave, which has also been severely impacted by the changes to employment levels and arrangements caused by COVID-19. This paper argues that these impacts suggest a reconceptualized post-pandemic parental leave system in which such benefits are part of broader social protection policies. The paper also emphasizes that high-quality, affordable childcare services are essential for balancing work and family responsibilities.
Mo, G., Cukier, W., Atputharajah, A., Boase, M. I., & Hon, H. (2020, October 26). Differential impacts during COVID-19 in Canada: A look at diverse individuals and their businesses. Canadian Public Policy, 46(S3), S261–S271.
Using datasets from Statistics Canada, this paper reports that diverse groups — including women, racialized people, those with disabilities, Indigenous people and immigrants — have been more affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors highlight that these groups are more likely to be in part-time or precarious employment, have fewer options to work from home, and face greater issues accessing social programs. Women, particularly from diverse groups, are disproportionately impacted and report higher uncertainty in maintaining employment, accessing financial relief, and meeting financial obligations. These findings suggest the existence of structural inequalities in Canada.
Global Deal, OECD, & ILO. (2020, October 20). Social dialogue, skills and COVID-19: The global deal for decent work and inclusive growth flagship report. Paris, France: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/Geneva: Switzerland: International Labour Organization.
This report illustrates the importance of social dialogue in managing the consequences of the pandemic. It also outlines the benefits of involving social partners in adult-learning systems to prepare for the future of work. While technological change is creating skill shortages, strong adult-learning systems are needed to prevent skills depreciation and to facilitate transitions towards expanding sectors. A healthier economy can be achieved if strong social dialogue is used in developing policy actions that result in a more resilient labour market and a stronger economic recovery.
Schirle, T., & Skuterud, M. (2020, October 20). Long-term joblessness: A significant policy challenge on the horizon? Toronto, ON: C. D. Howe Institute.
By September 2020, more than 1.3 million Canadians had been out of work for more than six months. This article suggests that this trend will likely persist because of both the direct impact (e.g., business closures) and indirect impact (e.g., economic decline) of the current health crisis. They focus on key policy concerns and opportunities related to long-term joblessness in the context of a pandemic. Evidence shows that the longer a worker is jobless, the less likely they will be able to transition back into the workforce (negative duration dependence). The authors argue that policy makers should act now to mitigate the risk of long-term impacts on the labour market that disproportionately impact vulnerable groups, such as young workers and low-income Canadians.
Statistics Canada. (2020, October 20). Economic impacts and recovery related to the pandemic. A presentation series from Statistics Canada about the economy, environment and society. Catalogue no. 11-631-X. Ottawa, ON: Statistics Canada.
This report emphasizes that although economic output is recovering as businesses reopen, stark differences exist across sectors. For example, output in accommodation and food services in June 2020 was at 55% of the pre-pandemic level. Among those who lost their jobs, youth, less-educated workers, women, recent immigrants and temporary employees have been hit hardest. The report also highlights the structural challenges of heavily impacted sectors. For example, the retail sector rebounded quickly from storefront closures as firms developed or improved their online platforms. The report also pointed out that, from February to May 2020, the share of businesses with at least 10% of their workforce teleworking doubled from 16.6% to 32.6%.
Achou, B., Boisclair, D., d’Astous, P., Fonseca, R., Glenzer, F., & Michaud, P.-C. (2020, October). Early impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on household finances in Quebec. Canadian Public Policy, 46(S3), S217–S235.
This study reviews the pandemic’s impact on household finances and unemployment levels in Quebec. It provides a demographic breakdown of which group suffered job losses, reductions in working hours and consequently income reduction because of COVID-19. Moreover, it explains how households reacted to the crisis to smooth their spending in choosing to withdraw savings, increase debt, and defer or miss mortgage or other debt payments. The study concludes that Canada financial assistance programs, although quick and efficient, did not allow for specific targeting of more vulnerable groups. Hence the authors advocate that future emergency measures should aim to incentivize the use of savings (e.g. RRSPs), and that current debt relief measures should be extended.
Gallant, J., Kroft, K., Lange, F., & Notowidigdo, M. J. (2020, October). Temporary unemployment and labor market dynamics during the COVID-19 recession. NBER Working Paper 27924. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
This paper creates a search-and-matching model that incorporates temporary unemployment. Applying this model to study the labour market dynamics of COVID-19 in the US, the authors find that current models — which do not distinguish between temporary and permanent employment — overestimate the time to recover employment levels.
Hall, R. E., & Kudlyak, M. (2020, October). Unemployed with jobs and without jobs. NBER Working Paper 27886. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
To analyze the rapid decline of the unemployment rate, this paper defines different types of unemployment: recall-unemployment and jobless-unemployment. The authors state that recall-unemployment (workers on furlough or temporary layoff) has become an important part of labour dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, many of the recent reversals in unemployment have been associated with reductions in recall-unemployment. The authors, however, warned that jobless-unemployment — which generally declines slowly — could exacerbate and trigger higher overall unemployment.
WEF. (2020, October). The future of jobs report 2020. Geneva, Switzerland: World Economic Forum.
This report paints a grim picture of the future, arguing that the COVID-19 recession and automation are causing a double disruption for workers. With the pandemic, the window of opportunity to reskill and upskill workers has become shorter. The report estimates that job creation is slowing, while job destruction is accelerating. By 2025, redundant roles are expected to decline by 6.4 percentage points, while emerging professions will grow by 5.7 percentage points. The report also points out that the crisis has impacted individuals with lower education levels more deeply, warning that, in the absence of proactive efforts, inequality may be exacerbated.
ILO. (2020, September 23). ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work, 6th ed. Geneva, Switzerland: International Labour Organization.
The sixth edition of the ILO Monitor gives an update on the effects of COVID-19 on the global labour market. The key take-away is that 94% of the world’s workers still live in countries with workplace closures. Upper-middle-income countries have been adopting more stringent rules to curb the numbers of cases, a trend not followed by low-income countries despite rising numbers. Strict restrictions will continue to increase working hour losses as well as higher levels of unemployment and inactivity. This situation could lead the younger generation to face long-term labour market disadvantages. The ILO advocates for policy measures that correspond to the magnitude of labour market disruptions and provide the fullest possible support to vulnerable and hard-hit groups.
Schirle, T., & Skuterud, M. (2020, September 22). The challenge of designing income support programs for the self-employed. Toronto/Montreal: Finances of the Nation.
This article reports that between February and April 2020, aggregate hours worked by self-employed individuals fell by 57% among the unincorporated, and by 52% among the incorporated. In comparison, aggregate hours worked by paid employees in the private sector fell by 33% and in the public sector by 17%. This article emphasizes, however, that self-employed individuals are a diverse group not easily characterized. Since the data is far from ideal, before developing any long-term policy or support programs for this segment of the Canadian workforce, we need to better understand the workflow, incomes and behavioural responses of self-employed people. So far, the Canada Recovery Benefit (CRB) has been an important source of support during the pandemic, particularly for those with no employees.
Fuss, J., Palacios, M., & Eisen, B. (2020, September 17). How much could a guaranteed annual income cost? Vancouver, BC: Fraser Institute.
Implementation of the Canada Emergency Response Benefit due to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to increasing interest in a universal basic income or guaranteed annual income (GAI). This report provides insights on how much such a program could cost, as well as the trade-off and implementation problems that might arise. The report compares four types of GAI by yearly amounts of cash transfer, reduction rate and income threshold. Many supporters suggest that a GAI could simplify the transfer system, improve the dynamics and incentives in the labour market, and help alleviate poverty.
OECD. (2020, September 16). Coronavirus (COVID-19): Living with uncertainty. OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Uncertainty is a recurring subject in the COVID-19 pandemic; this paper focuses on three key areas of uncertainty. First, the author analyzes how uncertainty remains high and confidence is fragile for both households and businesses in the face of only gradual recovery. Second, projections show only moderate output growth due to the decrease in confidence, spending and employment. Third, to reduce uncertainty and boost confidence, certain policies need to be maintained, including public health intervention, macroeconomic policies (such as monetary policies) and fiscal policies. Finally, the paper suggests how structural reform could seize the opportunity to implement the necessary actions required to limit the long-term threat of climate change.
Brochu, P., Créchet, J., & Deng, Z. (2020, September). Labour market flows and worker trajectories in Canada during COVID-19. Working Paper #32. Waterloo, ON: Canadian Labour Economics Forum.
This paper uses the Labour Force Survey (LFS) to measure the scope of worker reallocation in Canada from the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic through mid-summer 2020. While most recently laid-off individuals have regained employment, high labour market churning persists even after the easing of social-distancing restrictions. Furthermore, results suggest re-employment diﬃculties for those who have left the labour force, and an unusually low job-ﬁnding rate for workers not employed prior to the pandemic.
Chopra, A., Devereux, M. B., & Lahiri, A. (2020, September). Pandemics through the lens of occupations. NBER Working Paper 27841. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
The authors of this paper develop a macroeconomic pandemic model where economic activity increases the risk of infection, while lockdowns reduce infections but at the cost of a worse recession. The model focuses on the endogenous choice by individuals of whether to work from home or in the market. These results are calibrated to Canadian data from the 2016 census, which show that self-isolation reduces the peak infection rate by 2 percentage points but reduces economic output by 4 percentage points.
Hou, F., Picot, G., & Zhang, J. (2020, August 20). Transitions into and out of employment by immigrants during the COVID-19 lockdown and recovery. StatCan COVID-19: Data to Insights for a Better Canada. Ottawa, ON: Statistics Canada, Government of Canada.
Using the Labour Force Survey, this paper looks at employment differences for immigrants and Canadians between the ages of 20 and 64 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results suggest a larger increase in the rate of transition to non-employment for immigrants, especially recent female immigrants. The authors associate these results with shorter job tenure and over-representation in lower-wage jobs for immigrants.
Gu, Wulong. (2020, August 19). Economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Canadian businesses across firm size classes. Economic Insight. Catalogue no. 11-626-X — 2020017 – No. 119. Ottawa, ON: Statistics Canada, Government of Canada.
By looking at two measures of economic activity, this paper analyzes the impact on Canadian businesses of economic restrictions and unprecedented government intervention adopted during COVID-19. The measures used are 1) hours worked by employees engaged in production and 2) the real output. The analysis shows that hours worked declined in Q1 2020 for both the goods and services sectors. The decline occurred in businesses of all sizes for the goods sector. For the service sector, however, the decline occurred in small- and medium-sized firms, with an increase for large firms. Moreover, the real output decline for Canadian businesses was 1.7%, with the service sector enduring a greater drop compared to the goods sector.
APEC. (2020, August 13). COVID 19: Key issues for Atlantic Canada’s economy, Issue 1. Halifax, NS: Atlantic Provinces Economic Council.
This report highlights the economic effects and the recovery outlook of the COVID-19 pandemic for Atlantic Canada. Within the first two months of the pandemic, the economic impact in Atlantic Canada was similar to the rest of Canada. However, the region began recovering faster. By July 2020, it had regained 61% of all jobs lost, compared to 55% nationally. But long-term challenges remain that may slow economic recovery. Employment improved rapidly between May and June but slowed significantly in July. Among all sectors, the tourism, transportation, food services and accommodation, and entertainment and recreation sectors will take the longest to fully recover.
Savage, K., & Turcotte, M. (2020, August 10). Commuting to work during COVID-19. STATCAN COVID-19: Data to Insights for a better Canada. Catalogue no. 45280001. Ottawa, ON: Statistics Canada.
The modes of transportation used by Canadian workers have certainly changed since the COVID-19 outbreak. The number of commuters has dropped considerably in order to contain the spread of the virus. To examine these changes over the course of the pandemic, Statistics Canada conducted a third wave of the Canadian Perspectives Survey Series (CPSS) from June 15–21, focusing on Canadians working throughout the pandemic. Results indicate that 24% of workers who previously used public transit still do, while 34% of public transit users switched to another mode of transportation. Data also suggest that workers with higher levels of education are more likely to switch to telework.
Alon, T., Doepke, M., Olmstead-Rumsey, J., & Tertilt, M. (2020, August). This time it’s different: The role of women’s employment in a pandemic recession. NBER Working Paper 27660. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
This paper argues that in previous US recessions, men experienced higher rates of unemployment than women; however, in the current recession, it is the reverse. Women have experienced high levels of unemployment because their jobs are concentrated in sectors hit hard by the pandemic, such as food services and tourism, and because of increased childcare needs due to school and daycare closures. Using a quantitative macroeconomic model, the authors find that in this pandemic recession, few married workers can rely on the role of families as a shock absorber. They also find that a pandemic recession results in both direct employment losses in the short-term and then long-term losses due to low employment for both genders. Lastly, the authors argue that because of newfound workplace flexibility and more equal childcare between men and women, the pandemic recession may ultimately lessen gender inequality in the long-term.
Blit, J. (2020, August). Automation and reallocation: Will COVID-19 usher in the future of work? Canadian Public Policy, 46(S2), S192–S202.
Recent evidence from the United States shows that recessions can promote automation and the reallocation of productive resources critical to long-run aggregate productivity growth. This study presents evidence suggesting similar results for Canada by constructing industry-level measures of worker exposure to COVID-19 and the fraction of routine employment using the Labour Force Survey (LFS). Results suggest that the retail, construction, manufacturing, wholesale and transportation industries are likely to experience the biggest transformations. The author urges that policies should facilitate technological change and support workers through the transition.
United Nations. (2020, August). Policy brief: Education during COVID-19 and beyond.
Almost 1.6 billion learners in more than 190 countries have been disrupted by COVID-19. Opportunities to learn for those living in poor or rural areas, women, persons with disabilities, refugees, and forcibly displaced persons have been reduced. Another 23.8 million youth may drop out or not have access to school next year. Closures of educational institutions have also limited access to food, affected the ability of parents to work, and contributed to increased violence against women and girls. These impacts only add to an already fiscally strained system in which many educational programs were facing funding challenges before COVID-19, further threatening access not only to education but also to essential services. To mitigate the negative consequences of COVID-19, the UN recommends four policy responses that governments and stakeholders should consider: 1) suppress transmission of the virus and plan thoroughly for school re-openings; 2) protect education financing and coordinate for impact; 3) build resilient education systems for equitable and sustainable development; and 4) reimagine education and accelerate change in teaching and learning.
Statistics Canada. (2020, July 29). Child care use during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. STATCAN COVID-19: Data to Insights for a Better Canada. Catalogue no. 45280001. Ottawa, ON: Statistics Canada.
This release by Statistics Canada presents the key findings of a special COVID-19–related data collection about childcare and family characteristics. The data was collected by crowdsourcing and should not be extrapolated to Canada in general since it is not a representative sample. Information is available by household characteristics such as single-parent households, parents working outside the home or parents working from home. Questions covered aspects of childcare including changes in the type and price of childcare being used before and during the pandemic. Access to childcare, and the degree of business closure, varied across provinces. For example, in the harder hit provinces of Ontario and Quebec, only 5% of respondents were using childcare services during the pandemic compared to 20% in Saskatchewan where the impact was less severe.
Frenette, M., Messacar, D., & Handler, T. (2020, July 28). To what extent might COVID-19 affect the earnings of the class of 2020? STATCAN COVID-19: Data to insights for a better Canada. Catalogue no. 45280001. Ottawa, ON: Statistics Canada.
Young people have been disproportionately affected by the economic slowdown resulting from measures to curb the spread of COVID-19. This has implications for high school and post-secondary graduates planning to enter the job market soon. To understand these implications, Statistics Canada estimated five-year potential earnings losses under five different youth unemployment rates. In the case where the youth unemployment rate for this year is 16%, five-year losses could be less than $6,000 for all groups, or less than $1,200 per year. If, instead, this year’s unemployment rate reaches 19%, potential five-year losses could range from $8,000–$15,000. If the rate goes up to 22% or 25%, on the other hand, earnings losses range from approximately $15,000–$25,000 and $22,000–$35,000, respectively. Finally, at a youth unemployment rate of 28% for this year, individuals could lose $25,000 or more over the next five years, ranging from $23,000–$44,000 depending on gender and level of education.
Desjardins, D., Freestone, C., & Powell, N. (2020, July 16). Pandemic threatens decades of women’s labour force gains: COVID downturn sees job losses eclipse those of any other recession. Toronto, ON: RBC Economics.
This report discusses the impact of the pandemic and resulting recession on the labour market outcomes of women. A direct relationship exists between job losses and reduced hours worked among women and the increasing childcare responsibilities faced by families. First, in this recession the hardest hit industries were female dominated, unlike past recessions when male-dominated industries were hardest hit. Second, women are more likely to take on the increasing childcare responsibilities that stem from closed daycares, schools, and other extracurricular activities. The combination of these two factors can keep women out of the labour force, or working reduced hours, longer than their male counterparts, causing women to fall behind, which affects their long-term career opportunities and wage outcomes.
Schirle, T., & Skuterud, M. (2020, July 15). The moms are not all right. Intelligence Memos. Toronto, ON: C.D. Howe Institute.
Using Labour Force Survey data on hours worked, the authors find that, on average, Canadians are working more hours in June compared to April (when hours worked were at their lowest point). However, women with young children are not returning to their pre-shutdown level of hours worked as quickly as their male counterparts, Canadians with older children, or those without children. The first explanation is that employment and hours worked are recovering more quickly in male-dominated industries; overall, men are returning to work faster than women. Second, often the parent with the highest earning potential will return to work while the other focuses on caregiving. Since male-dominated industries are opening more quickly, the male parent more likely has a job to return to at near regular hours (and income). Even if women can work more hours, they may not be able to because of household obligations, which appear to be falling more to women than to men.
DiCapua, A., Topping, J., & Tapp, S. (2020, July 14). EDC COVID-19 impact survey suggests the worst is behind us. Ottawa, ON: Export Development Canada (EDC).
Businesses are adapting to COVID-19 by identifying new opportunities or lending support to the fight against the pandemic. Some have shifted production towards new products and services or prioritized current high-demand products. However, it is now clear that companies — especially in harder hit sectors such as tourism — will face long-term challenges. In a May 2020 survey of Canadian exporters about the challenges faced related to COVID-19, EDC found that April was the rock-bottom, and things are starting to improve for Canadian exporters. They found that 83% of business had fully or partially reopened. The biggest challenge to companies doing business outside of Canada is travel restrictions. Overall, the survey finds evidence that the worst is behind us but that Canadian exporters are preparing for possible long-term impacts a year or more from now, especially regarding their ability to do business outside of Canada.
Arriagada, P., Frank, K., Hahmann, T., & Hou, F. (2020, July 14). Economic impact of COVID-19 among Indigenous people. STATCAN COVID-19: Data to Insights for a Better Canada. Catalogue no. 45280001. Ottawa, ON: Statistics Canada.
From May 26 to June 8, Statistics Canada conducted a crowdsourcing survey that focused on the impact of COVID-19 on Canadians. This article uses data from this survey to investigate the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Indigenous participants. Results suggest that Indigenous participants more often reported facing strong or moderate financial impacts of COVID-19 than non-Indigenous participants. In addition, Indigenous participants had lower levels of trust across all levels of government and public health authorities, in terms of reopening decisions, than non-Indigenous participants.
Gentilini, U., Almenfi, M., & Orton, I. (2020, July 10). Social protection and jobs responses to COVID-19: A real-time review of country measures. Published online by Ugo Gentilini.
Ugo Gentilini and Mohamed Almenfi, both of the World Bank, and Ian Orton of the International Labour Organization have teamed up with colleagues to document the range of social protection measures either planned or implemented by governments across the globe to mitigate the consequences of COVID-19. Data sources for this review include government websites, newspapers, official government twitter accounts and official information provided directly by country-based experts. The authors intend to update and verify the information on an ongoing basis, making this a “living paper.”
OECD. (2020, July 7). OECD employment outlook 2020: Worker security and the COVID-19 crisis. Paris, France: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
To ensure the safety of workers and businesses affected by COVID-19, OECD countries responded with a variety of income- and employment-support policies, such as expanded unemployment benefits and subsidized job-retention programs. As countries begin to relax restrictions and return to economic and social activity, it is important to balance providing support with encouraging business activity. Specifically, countries will need to make critical decisions relating to four specific areas. These are as follows: 1) unemployment benefit rules, especially for workers in non-standard jobs; 2) employment protection legislation and reforms for worker security, such as restricting dismissals and adding protections for workers on temporary contracts; 3) job polarization and demographic changes, and 4) the labour market outcomes of young graduates from vocational education and training.
Hou, F., Frank, K., & Schimmele, C. (2020, July 6). Economic impact of COVID-19 among visible minority groups. STATCAN COVID-19: Data to Insights for a Better Canada. Catalogue no. 45280001. Ottawa, ON: Statistics Canada, Government of Canada.
This study examines if pre-existing high poverty rates among visible minority groups in Canada prior to the COVID-19 pandemic make them more vulnerable to its financial risk/impact. Using the 2016 census and crowdsourced data, the report finds that a third of respondents who were working prior to the pandemic reported job loss or reduced work hours. White participants and visible minorities were equally likely to suffer job loss or reduced hours except for Filipinos and West Asians who reported higher shares, at 42% and 47%, respectively. However, the study finds that visible minority groups had higher shares of strong or moderate income losses compared to white respondents. After controlling for group differences in job loss, immigration status, pre-COVID employment status, education and other demographic characteristics, the gap between visible minorities and white populations decreased but was still large.
United Nations. (2020, July 1). COVID-19 and tourism: Assessing the economic consequences. Geneva, Switzerland: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
This paper looks at the economic effects on tourism from COVID-19 lockdown measures. It estimates both the direct and indirect costs of border shutdowns for 65 sectors across 65 countries and regions. Globally, losses in the most optimistic tourism reduction scenario are estimated to be $1.17 trillion USD, which comprises approximately 1.5% of global GDP. Furthermore, estimates of employment losses in the tourism sector range between 10% and 40% depending on the country and the severity of the shock. This paper also makes a case for government assistance to the tourism industry to lessen the blow.
Chernoff, A. W., & Warman, C. (2020, July). COVID-19 and implications for automation. NBER Working Paper 27249. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
This report finds that the automation of jobs may be accelerated if employers invest in technology to avoid the effects of COVID-19 and potential future pandemics on their production processes. Using information from the O*NET database, the authors identify local U.S. labour markets and demographic groups that are more vulnerable to automation due to higher infection transmission risks. Their results suggest that women face larger risks, notably mid-educated women in healthcare, administrative, and service occupations. The results also indicate that American Heartland regions have the highest concentration of jobs with automation potential.
Fairlie, R. W. (2020, July). The impact of COVID-19 on small business owners: Continued losses and the partial rebound in May 2020. NBER Working Paper 27462. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
In April 2020, 22% of small business owners in the United States were inactive. Using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), the author demonstrates a partial rebound in May 2020. From April’s low of 22%, the number of active business owners climbed by 7% to 15%. Overall, African-American business owners continue to be the hardest hit by COVID-19 with a drop of 26% in business activity from pre-COVID-19 levels. Latinx business owners saw a drop of 19%, and for Asian business owners the drop was 21%. Immigrant business owners also experienced substantial losses, with a drop of 25% from February 2020.
Andrew, A., Cattan, S., Costa Dias, M., Farquharson, C., Kraftman, L. Krutikova, S., Phimister, A., & Sevilla, A. (2020, July). The gendered division of paid and domestic work under lockdown. IZA Discussion Paper 13500. Bonn, Germany: IZA Institute of Labor Economics.
This paper uses a sample of parents in England living in two-parent opposite-gender families and examines the gendered division of paid and domestic work. Before the pandemic, women were less likely than men to be in paid work and were more likely to spend more time doing housework and childcare. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, mothers are more likely than fathers to lose their job and, among those who still work, mothers spend less time on paid work and more time on childcare. While fathers have increased the amount of time spent on childcare during the lockdown, it is still mothers who take on the bulk of childcare and domestic work.
Beland, L.-P., Fakorede, O., & Mikola, D. (2020, July). Short-term effect of COVID-19 on self-employed workers in Canada. Canadian Public Policy, 46(S1), S66–S81.
This paper studies the short-term effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on self-employed individuals in Canada — those interpreted as small business owners, who may never recover from the crisis. The paper uses the Labour Force Survey to document a 14.8% and 10.1% drop in business ownership for incorporated and unincorporated entities, respectively, between February and May of this year. There has been a substantial decrease in business ownership for immigrants (–16.1%), women (–12.9%) and less-educated individuals (–17.8%). The occupational categories that experienced the largest decline in the number of small businesses are in art, culture, and recreation; education, law, and social, community and government services; and sales and service occupations.
Chetty, R., Friedman, J. N., Hendren, N., & Stepner, M. (2020, June 17). How did COVID-19 and stabilization policies affect spending and employment? A new real-time economic tracker based on private sector data. Cambridge, MA: Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business & Government, Harvard Kennedy School.
In this paper, the authors address the challenges faced by policymakers during the COVID-19 pandemic by building a freely accessible platform. The platform tracks economic activity at a granular level in real time using anonymized data from private US companies. Specifically, the report includes weekly statistics on consumer spending, business revenues, employment rates and other key indicators disaggregated by county, industry and income group. Self-isolation driven by health concerns caused a sharp reduction in consumption levels. However, state-ordered re-openings of the economy have had little impact on local employment. Paycheck Protection Program loans have also had little impact on consumption and employment for small businesses. The analysis suggests that it may be more helpful to mitigate economic hardship during a pandemic through social insurance.
OECD. (2020, June 12). COVID-19 and international trade: Issues and actions. OECD Policy Responses to Coronavirus (COVID-19). Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
This report from the OECD recommends four actions that countries can take to ensure that international trade keeps flowing during COVID-19. First, raise confidence in trade and international markets by improving transparency about trade-related policy actions and intentions. Second, ensure that supply chains continue to flow, especially for essentials such as health supplies and food. Third, avoid unnecessary export restrictions and other trade barriers since they will make the situation worse. Finally, think beyond the immediate, even in the midst of a crisis such as this one.
Bennedsen, M., Larsen, B., Schmutte, I., & Scur, D. (2020, June 9). Preserving job matches during the COVID-19 pandemic: Firm-level evidence on the role of government aid. COVID Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers, 27, 1–30. London, UK: Centre for Economic Policy and Research.
This paper looks at the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on firms taking up government aid. Using a sample of Danish firms, the authors found that the most common type of aid package included support for furloughed workers and delays in tax payments. In general, firms receiving aid report more temporary and fewer permanent layoffs compared to firms not taking up government aid. Furthermore, the type of aid received by firms affected their reactions. Firms that took labour aid reported lower permanent layoffs and more furloughs, while firms that took cost aid reported both lower permanent layoffs and lower furloughs.
Stanford, J. (2020, June 3). 10 ways the COVID-19 pandemic must change work for good. Vancouver, BC: Centre for Future Work/Ottawa, ON: Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives.
This paper identifies ten changes that will allow society to rebuild after the pandemic: 1) guaranteeing proper health and safety practices and equipment in workplaces; 2) reconfiguring the relationships of workplaces; 3) providing adequate paid sick leave and other income security; 4) ensuring that work from home occurs in a fair, safe, sustainable manner; 5) limiting precarious employment practices and providing decent supports to workers in insecure work arrangements; 6) welcoming the inevitable increase in the quantity of jobs in the full range of public sector functions and services; 7) reducing reliance on “just-in-time” management, staffing and logistics strategies; 8) reconfiguring Canada’s approach to income security; 9) revaluing the work of those occupations proven to be essential to public welfare and safety during the pandemic; 10) ensuring adequate structures of voice, representation and bargaining power for workers.
McKinsey & Company. (2020, June 1). COVID-19: Briefing materials. Global health and crisis response. New York, NY: McKinsey & Company.
As many regions lift public health measures and restart their economies, uncertainties around COVID-19 case reduction might persist. Both the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predict a possible COVID-19 resurgence in the fall. Since the development of a vaccine is still uncertain, McKinsey & Company advises companies and governments to consider shifting online and setting remote workplace norms for the next 18–24 months. It is crucial to adapt with speed and discipline during the pandemic, while monitoring and learning from the environment to overcome uncertainty faster and build capabilities for the “next normal.”
Brodeur, A., Gray, D., Islam, A., Bhuiyan, S. J. (2020, June). A literature review of the economics of COVID-19. IZA Discussion Paper 13411. Bonn, Germany: IZA Institute of Labor Economics.
This survey investigates the emerging literature on the economic consequences of COVID-19 and the resulting government responses. The authors focus on labour, health, gender, discrimination and environmental consequences as well as discussing measures of social distancing and various policy proposals.
Cavallo, A. (2020, June). Inflation with COVID consumption baskets. NBER Working Paper 27352. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Consumer expenditure patterns have been greatly disrupted by the lockdowns and social-distancing policies in many countries. In this article, the author attempts to demonstrate bias measurement in the Consumer Price Indices (CPIs) used to measure inflation. Using estimates obtained from US credit and debit card transactions, the author shows that the basket mostly consumed during the COVID-19 pandemic experienced more inflation than the official CPI. The difference is large and growing over time as consumers spend more on food and similar categories currently experiencing inflation, and less on transportation and related categories with significant deflation.
Galasso, V., Pons, V., Profeta, P., Becher, M., Brouard, S., & Foucault, M. (2020, June). Gender differences in COVID-19 related attitudes and behavior: Evidence from a panel survey in eight OECD countries. NBER Working Paper 27359. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Using data from two waves of a survey conducted in March and April 2020 in eight OECD countries, the authors found that women are more likely to see COVID-19 as a very serious health problem. The gender differences in attitudes and behaviours were significant in all countries and remained robust after controlling for various sociodemographic, employment and behavioural factors. These results carry important public policy implications since the behavioural changes needed to prevent COVID-19 diffusion, such as reduced mobility or wearing masks, might be the “new normal.”
Holland, K. L. (2020, June). Canada’s food security during the COVID-19 pandemic. SPP Research Paper, 13(13). Calgary, AB: The Simpson Centre for Agricultural and Food Innovation and Public Education, The School of Public Policy, University of Calgary.
As the report explains, challenges caused by COVID-19 have highlighted vulnerabilities in the food supply chain. Since March, the demand side has seen panic-buying of goods and changes in consumption patterns. On the supply side, farmers are the most impacted group. First, reduced capacity at meat processing facilities generated bottlenecks that prevented livestock from reaching market, an income loss for farmers. Second, timing is critical in farming. Crops must be planted and cultivated at specific times of the year, of course, and cannot be harvested until the process is complete. Labour and supply shortages have also led to delays. Overall, this generates greater uncertainty for farmers and increases their financial risks. The report calls on policy makers to address the food insecurity of Canadians and the financial uncertainty of farmers in the long-term.
Lemieux, T., Milligan, K., Schirle, T., & Skuterud, M. (2020, June). Initial impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Canadian labour market. Spring–Summer 2020, Working Paper 26. Waterloo, ON: Canadian Labour Economics Forum.
The COVID-19 pandemic has induced sharp declines in economic activity, unprecedented in recorded economic history. Data from the Labour Force Survey show a 32% drop in aggregate weekly hours worked between February and April 2020 for workers aged 20–64, as well as a 15% drop in employment for the same group. In addition, almost half of all job losses occurred to workers whose earnings lay in the bottom quartile of wage distribution. Workers in public-face occupations such as food services and accommodation, workers who are younger, and workers paid hourly bore a disproportionate share of job losses. From a policy perspective, regulations about safe work — especially for those with the least bargaining power — policies that address childcare needs, and finding the right balance between income support and economic incentives to work are essential to an efficient, successful recovery.
Lin, P. Z., & Meissner, C. M. (2020, June). A note on long-run persistence of public health outcomes in pandemics. NBER Working Paper 27119. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Using data from U.S. cities, along with a sample of other countries, the authors find a negative correlation between the health outcomes (such as mortality rates) for the COVID-19 and Spanish flu pandemics. Places relatively unaffected by the Spanish flu in 1918 were more likely affected during the first few months of the COVID-19 pandemic and still have higher mortality months later. The authors also suggest that the political climate can affect health outcomes, specifically through preparedness and access to resources. As a lesson from history, places most affected by SARS in 2002, such as East Asian nations, learned the importance of pandemic preparedness, which appears to have positively influenced their preparedness for COVID-19.
Papanikolaou, D., & Schmidt, L. D. W. (2020, June). Working remotely and the supply-side impact of COVID-19. NBER Working Paper 27330. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Using data from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS), the authors constructed a “COVID-19 work exposure” index to capture supply-side disruptions associated with the pandemic across sectors, firms and workers. This index, measuring differences in the capacity to work remotely, reveals that exposure varies significantly by sector. Exposure is low for software publishers, since most production can be done remotely, but very high for meat production where employees cannot work remotely. In sectors with higher exposure indicators (less ability to work remotely), greater declines in employment, more reductions in expected revenue growth, and worse stock market performance were measured. Those most affected were lower-paid female workers with young children.
Turcotte, M., & Hango, D. (2020, May 28). Impact of economic consequences of COVID-19 on Canadians’ social concerns. StatCan COVID-19: Data to Insights for a Better Canada. Catalogue no. 45280001. Ottawa, ON: Statistics Canada, Government of Canada.
Using Statistics Canada’s newly developed online Canadian Perspective Survey, the authors examined how personal financial concerns can impact matters related to social cohesion. Factors considered include family stress from confinement, violence in the home, maintaining social ties, the ability to co-operate and support one another, and the risk of civil disorder. Seventeen percent of Canadians aged 25–64 reported that COVID-19 will have a major impact on their ability to meet their essential needs and financial obligations (e.g., mortgages and utilities); 25% reported that they would likely lose their main job or primary source of income. These groups were also more likely to be concerned about the social impacts of the pandemic. Immigrants and those with low levels of education reported greater social concerns compared to Canadian-born residents and those with more education.
ILO. (2020, May 27). ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work, 4th ed. Geneva, Switzerland: International Labour Organization.
This forth edition of the ILO Monitor updates estimates and analysis on the effects of COVID-19 on the world of work. Key messages include that 94% of the world’s workers are living in countries with some sort of workplace closures in place. Estimates suggest that testing for and tracing of infections can help to reduce working hour losses (which declined by 10.7%) by as much as 50%. They also highlight that young people are facing multiple shocks from the COVID‑19 pandemic, which could lead to the emergence of a “lockdown generation.” The ILO calls for urgent, large-scale policy responses to prevent long-lasting damage to young people.
Statistics Canada. (2020, May 27). Canadians’ mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Daily. Ottawa, ON: Government of Canada.
Between April 24 and May 1 2020, Statistics Canada collected data via an online questionnaire from approximately 46,000 Canadians on the impact of COVID-19 on mental health. Almost one-quarter of participants indicated fair or poor mental health. Over half reported that their mental health has worsened since physical distancing restrictions were implemented. Those financially affected by COVID-19 are more prone to anxiety symptoms due to difficulties in meeting financial obligations. Youth are also more likely to report worsening mental health.
Green, D., Kesselman, J. R., & Tedds, L. (2020, May 21). Considerations for basic income as a COVID-19 response. The School of Public Policy Publications, SPP Briefing Paper, 13(11). Calgary, AB: University of Calgary.
The effectiveness of policies like the CERB (Canada Emergency Response Benefit) during the pandemic has raised the profile of basic income as a policy option. The goal in this briefing paper is to set out the key questions that must be answered in deciding whether and how to implement basic income, or any alternative social support policy. The message is that the design and implementation of a basic income policy requires careful, comprehensive, evidence-based consideration. The questions cover different topics, such as principles to define basic income, objectives, details of the program, eligibility conditions, amounts of the benefit, cost of the program, impact of the program on the economy and alternative programs with similar objectives.
Jeon, S.-H., & Ostrovsky, Y. (2020, May 20). The impact of COVID-19 on the gig economy: Short- and long-term concerns. StatCan COVID-19: Data to Insights for a Better Canada. Catalogue no. 45280001. Ottawa, ON: Statistics Canada, Government of Canada.
Gig workers (GWs) are over-represented in the services industry, which has been severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors argue that the impact of COVID-19 on GWs is likely to be unevenly distributed, largely depending on the nature and type of gig work. Immediate effects will depend on certain characteristics, mainly age, place of residence and industry of work. Younger GWs are more likely to be affected than older ones, who may have diverse sources of income (e.g., pension). GWs in professional, scientific and technical services may be able to continue working during the pandemic compared to those requiring face-to-face interactions with customers. The authors also predict that COVID-19 may accelerate the expansion of online platforms and crowdsourcing spaces, which in turn could increase the size of the gig economy.
DeAntonio, D. (2020, May 14). The Week Ahead – U.S., Europe, Asia-Pacific. High Technology Is North America’s Biggest Corporate Borrower. New York: Moody’s Analytics.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the U.S. unemployment rate and the measure of labour underutilization jumped to 14.7% and 22.8%, respectively, in April 2020. However, both measures underestimate the current economic situation since many workers were absent from work due to COVID-19-related business closures and classified as “employed but absent from work” rather than unemployed. The number of workers shifting from employed to not in the labour force was five million higher than for a typical April. Taking these two factors into account brings the unemployment rate and the labour underutilization rate to over 22% and 30% respectively.
VSE. (2020, May 14). VSE COVID-19 risk/reward assessment tool. University of British Columbia, Vancouver School of Economics.
The VSE COVID Risk/Reward Assessment Tool compares the risks and benefits of re-opening different sectors of the British Columbia economy (over 300 occupations in over 100 industries). It features an interactive figure and a table with more detailed information on the risks associated with specific sectors and occupations. The analysis of risk is presented according to three main categories: 1) risks associated with work in a particular occupation (“Job description detail”), 2) importance of the sector in the BC economy (“Economic factors detail”) and 3) risks associated with factors outside of the work place (“Household detail”).
Landier, A., & Thesmar, D. (2020, May 13). Earnings expectations in the COVID crisis. NBER Working Paper 27160. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
To better understand how the stock market reacted to the COVID-19 pandemic, this study analyzes stock prices and future earnings estimates from the Institutional Broker’s Estimate System (IBES) database. First, the authors describe expectations dynamics about future corporate earnings. They show that the term structure of earnings expectations has shifted over the course of March, April and May 2020 in a manner that deviates from the literature on expectations and stock returns. Second, they find that discount rate shocks are the main driver of the V-shaped evolution of stock prices.
Harris, J. E. (2020, May 12). Reopening under COVID-19: What to watch for. NBER Working Paper 27166. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Using a variety of case studies from across the United States, the author investigates the quality of COVID-19 status indicators, as well as social and health policies, used to contain the virus at the local level. Effective status indicators must produce reliable, accurate, timely information about the local trends, spread, and other key indicators, such as morbidity rates. The purpose of this exercise is to find measures and strategies for monitoring COVID-19 that can be used across the US as economy reopens. Using observations from places such as Wisconsin and Orange County, universal testing has proven the most effective way to monitor trends. Moreover, specifically coupling testing with statistics and outcomes generated by hospitals and other health care institutions enhances the depth and timeliness of COVID-19 monitoring.
Statistics Canada. (2020, May 12). Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on postsecondary students. The Daily. Ottawa, ON: Government of Canada.
Statistics Canada collected data via an online questionnaire from more than 100,000 postsecondary students between April 19 and May 1 about how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected their academic, labour market and financial situations. Most participants reported an academic disruption because of the pandemic and a major impact on their employment plans. Many student participants also reported significant concerns about their financial situation because of COVID-19.
Statistics Canada. (2020, May 11). Impact of COVID-19 on Small Businesses in Canada. StatCan COVID-19: Data to Insights for a Better Canada. Ottawa, ON: Government of Canada.
Statistics Canada collected data from 12,600 businesses that took part in an online questionnaire between April 3 and April 24 about how COVID-19 has affected them. The findings show that small businesses (fewer than 100 employees) were more likely to report that their revenues from Q1 were down by 20% or more (compared to Q1 last year) than those with 100+ employees. They also found that nearly 41% of businesses overall reported laying off employees, compared to 80% of small businesses. Small businesses were also more likely to request credit from financial institutions to cover operating costs due to COVID-19 and were slightly more likely to have their rent deferred.
Furceri, D., Loungani, P., Ostry, J. D., & Pizzuto, P. (2020, May 1). Will Covid-19 affect inequality? Evidence from past pandemics. COVID Economics Vetted and Real-Time Papers, Issue 12, 138–157. London: Centre for Economic and Policy Research.
Since the Gini coefficient (a statistical measure of income distribution) increased globally following other recent pandemics such as H1N1, the authors investigate the potential impact of COVID-19 on income inequality. The dataset draws from various sources, including the World Bank and the International Labour Organization. The authors estimate impulse response functions to analyze the possible effects of COVID-19 on future income inequality. They find evidence that the effects of COVID-19 on inequality will be larger than those from other recent pandemics. They estimate increased income shares for higher deciles and reduced employment-to-population ratios for those with basic education compared to higher education.
Rojas, F. L., Jiang, X., Montenovo, L., Simon, K. I., Weinberg, B. A., & Wing, C. (2020, May). Is the cure worse than the problem itself? Immediate labor market effects of COVID-19 case rates and school closures in the U.S. NBER Working Paper 27127. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
This paper looks at whether the nationwide public health shock of the COVID-19 pandemic or individual state mitigation policies had a greater effect on increasing unemployment in the United States. The authors found that the unprecedented increase in new unemployment claims between March 15–28 was similar across all states. This suggests that most labour market impacts were caused by the nationwide response to the health shock itself rather than by individual state policies (such as school closures) aimed at controlling the spread of the virus.
Acemoglu, D., Chernozhukov, V., Werning, I., & Whinston, M. (2020, May). A multi-risk SIR model with optimally targeted lockdown. NBER Working Paper 27102. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
This paper uses the SIR (Susceptible–Infectious–Recovered) model to help both researchers and policymakers better understand the spread and ultimate containment of an infection. In this model, those who recover are immune to the disease and thus the susceptible population declines over time. Using three groups — young (20–44), middle-aged (45–65) and older (65+) — the authors conduct a quantitative analysis of optimal policy. An approach that treats these three groups uniformly and involves a relatively strict, lengthy lockdown would result in both high economic damage and high mortality rates for older individuals. Better social outcomes are possible with targeted policies that treat these three age groups differently. For instance, a strict lockdown on the oldest group can minimize both economic losses and deaths.
Adler, D., & Breznitz, D. (2020, May). Reshoring supply chains: A practical policy agenda. American Affairs, 4(2).
In the United States, the COVID-19 crisis has revealed the fact that most essential health care supplies, such as face masks and ventilators, are produced abroad. This article calls for policy that examines the larger economic issues surrounding offshoring and finding ways to bring back more production into the United States. The authors argue that reshoring key sectors can reduce economic inequality and provide more job opportunities in the manufacturing sector.
Alfaro, L., Faia, E., Lamersdorf, N., & Saidi, F. (2020, May). Social interactions in pandemics: Fear, altruism, and reciprocity. NBER Working Paper 27134. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Predicting the spread of disease is difficult without also accounting for human behaviour. This is especially important as countries consider optimal policy responses to guide the re-opening of their respective economies since excessive precautionary behaviour may trigger demand spirals and dampen recovery. Combining an SIR-network model with Apple COVID daily mobility data for 89 cities around the world, fear is seen to have a negative impact on mobility (walking, driving, transit use) at the city level. Moreover, the direct effect of explicit regulations restricting mobility are muted in cases where individuals are more patient, have higher degrees of altruism and exhibit less negative reciprocity, signalling a higher likelihood that groups of people are linked to each other.
Aum, S., Lee, S. Y., & Shin, Y. (2020, May). COVID-19 doesn’t need lockdowns to destroy jobs: The effect of local outbreaks in Korea. NBER Working Paper 27264. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Using a difference-in-difference model, the authors estimate the causal effect of COVID-19 lockdowns on the labour market. They do so by looking at countries that implemented a severe lockdown and countries, such as Korea, that did not. Their estimates imply that a one per thousand increase in infections caused a 2–3% drop in local employment in the absence of a lockdown. In countries such as the US and UK, where large-scale lockdowns were implemented, this drop ranges between 5–6%. This suggests that COVID-19 itself, rather than the lockdown, is responsible for a considerable portion of job losses. Lifting lockdowns around the world, therefore, may lead to only modest job recovery unless infection rates fall.
Barrero, J. M., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2020, May). COVID-19 is also a reallocation shock. Working Paper No. 2020-59. University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute.
The authors draw on firm-level employment forecasts from the Survey of Business Uncertainty to estimate that 42% of recent layoffs in the US will result in permanent job loss. They anticipate a drawn-out economic recovery from the COVID-19 shock, even if the pandemic is largely controlled within a few months. The authors also suggest that unemployment benefit levels that exceed worker earnings, policies that subsidize employee retention, occupational licensing restrictions and regulatory barriers to business formation will impede reallocation responses to the COVID-19 shock.
Beland, L.-P., Brodeur, A., Mikola, D., & Wright, T. (2020, May). The short-term economic consequences of COVID-19: Occupation tasks and mental health in Canada. IZA DP No. 13254. Bonn, Germany: IZA Institute of Labor Economics.
The authors investigate the negative impact of the pandemic on unemployment, labour force participation, hours and wages in Canada. The largest effects observed were for younger, unmarried, less-educated workers. Results also suggest that the impact of the pandemic was significantly worse for those more exposed to the disease or working in proximity to coworkers. The effects were significantly less severe for essential workers and those who could work remotely. In terms of mental health consequences, using the Canadian Perspective Survey, the authors found that individuals absent from work due to COVID-19 were more likely to fear meeting financial obligations and losing their job.
Borjas, G. J., & Cassidy, H. (2020, May). The adverse effect of the COVID-19 labor market shock on immigrant employment. NBER Working Paper 27243. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Using CPS (Current Population Survey) microdata, the authors of this paper looked for differences in the COVID-19 labour market shock for immigrant males versus US-born males. They found that pandemic-related job losses reversed which group was more likely to be employed. Historically, immigrant males were more likely than US-born males to be employed. Overall, immigrant men have now become relatively more likely to lose a job and relatively less likely to find a job compared to US-born males.
Campello, M., Kankanhalli, G., & Muthukrishnan, P. (2020, May). Corporate hiring under COVID-19: Labor market concentration, downskilling, and income inequality. NBER Working Paper 27208. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on job postings. Using data from LinkUp, a provider of job market data and analytics in US, the authors find that firms have reduced job postings for high-skill jobs more than for low-skill jobs. Scaling back on hiring, especially high-skill hiring (called downskilling), is more severe in low-income and higher-inequality areas. Hiring cuts have also been greater in unionized industries. This study also discusses the important challenges that policy makers face in promoting job creation in a post-pandemic recovery.
Cicala, S., Holland, S. P., Mansur, E. T., Muller, N. Z., & Yates, A. J. (2020, May). Expected health effects of reduced air pollution from COVID-19 social distancing. NBER Working Paper 27135. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
This paper looks at the impact of social distancing on emissions and the resulting expected health effects in the United States. Reduced personal vehicle travel and electricity consumption are the two key factors. Using cell phone mobility data, the authors found that vehicle travel dropped 40% by mid-April and electricity consumption fell by about 6%. A month of social distancing decreased the expected number of premature deaths due to air pollution by 360 (25% of the baseline of 1500 deaths). They also estimate that CO2 emissions from these sources fell by 46 million metric tons.
Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Weber, M. (2020, May). The cost of the COVID-19 crisis: Lockdowns, macroeconomic expectations, and consumer spending. NBER Working Paper 27141. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Using large-scale surveys representative of US households, the authors assess the impact of different timings of local COVID-19 lockdowns on household spending, income/wealth losses and macroeconomic expectations. They found a significant decline in consumer spending and pronounced reductions in income and wealth. Close to 50% of respondents reported wealth losses ranging from $5,293 to $33,482. Households in counties with earlier lockdown dates predicted that the unemployment rate would rise 13 percentage points over the next twelve months and continue to increase over the next three to five years. Lower inflation, higher uncertainty and lower mortgage rates are also expected over the next decade. The authors note that their analysis is limited to the immediate effects of lockdowns and thus likely understate the impact of the pandemic.
Environics Institute for Survey Research, Future Skills Centre, Ted Rogers School of Management, & Diversity Institute. (2020, May). Canadian’s shifting outlook on employment: 2020 survey on employment and skills, preliminary report. Toronto, ON: Environics Institute for Survey Research.
This multi-partner study found that Canadians did not lose confidence in themselves or in society’s safety despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Amid the pandemic, 54% reported that they felt they could bounce back quickly after these hard times. Individuals with higher levels of education and income reported higher levels confidence. Workers in less secure positions said that they felt certain to be able to access the resources they need.
Fairlie, R. W., Couch. K., & Xu, H. (2020, May). The impacts of COVID-19 on minority unemployment: First evidence from April 2020 CPS microdata. NBER Working Paper 27246. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Using CPS (Current Population Survey) microdata and a difference-in-difference model, the authors investigate the impacts of COVID-19 on minority unemployment in the US. The overall unemployment rate was 14.7% in the period studied. Estimates show an increase in African American unemployment to 16.6%, which is less than anticipated based on previous recessions. The unemployment rate for Latinx (a gender-neutral neologism for Latina/Latino) reached 18.2%, however. African Americans were slightly disproportionately impacted by COVID-19 because a slightly favourable industry distribution partially protected them. Latinx were disproportionately hit hard due to occupation and skill differences from whites.
Granja, J., Makridis, C., Yannelis, C., & Zwick, E. (2020, May). Did the paycheck protection program hit the target? NBER Working Paper 27095. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
This paper looks at the new Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) that was part of the United States’ initial response to COVID-19. Using data on the distribution of PPP loans and high-frequency micro-level employment data, they found a disproportionate allocation to areas less affected by the crisis. Areas exposed to banks with a higher PPP lending share compared to their pre-policy business lending market share received a disproportionately larger number of PPP loans.
Jinjarak, Y., Ahmed, R., Nair-Desai, S., Xin, W., & Aizenman, J. (2020, May). Accounting for global COVID-19 diffusion patterns, January–April 2020. NBER Working Paper 27185. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
To help understand global pandemic diffusion patterns, the authors examine the relationship between COVID-19 mortality rates and specific country-level policy interventions aimed to limit social contact. COVID-19 policy and case data was collected by Oxford University and John Hopkins University, Apple mobility data and various controls. As well, OECD and Emerging Market data for the first 97 days of the pandemic was used. The authors found that more stringent pandemic policies resulted in lower mortality growth rates. In addition, countries with more stringent policies in place prior to the first COVID-19 death had lower mortality rates and flatter mortality curves. This effect is more pronounced in countries with an aging population, a higher population density, a greater share of employees in vulnerable occupations, greater democratic freedom, more international travel and a greater distance from the equator.
Mongey, S., Pilossoph, L., & Weinberg, A. (2020, May). Which workers bear the burden of social distancing policies? NBER Working Paper 27085. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Using two indicators created from US Occupational Information Network — O*NET — data, the authors of this report look at workers in occupations whose possibility of working remotely is unlikely or who have a high degree of physical proximity in the workplace. These workers tend, on average, to be less educated, to earn lower incomes, to possess fewer liquid assets and to rent rather than own their homes. In addition, workers employed in occupations less likely to be conducted from home experienced larger job losses than those whose occupations can be done remotely.
United Nations. (2020, May). Policy brief: The impact of COVID-19 on older persons. New York/Geneva
During the COVID-19 pandemic, those over 80 years of age face a mortality rate five times higher than other age groups. This United Nations policy brief elaborates on these impacts and identifies both immediate and longer-term policy responses needed to protect the elderly. They recommend strengthening older people’s social inclusion and solidarity during physical distancing. Increasing their access to digital technologies, protecting their vulnerability by investing in universal health coverage and social protection, and strengthening the applicable national and international legal frameworks are all suggested. Furthermore, risks faced by older persons in accessing health care need to be properly monitored and fully addressed.
WEF. (2020, May). COVID-19 risks outlook: A preliminary mapping and its implications. Geneva, Switzerland: World Economic Forum in partnership with Marsh & McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group.
Nearly 350 senior risk professionals participated in a COVID-19 Risks Perception Survey. This report taps into that data to provide a preliminary picture of amplified and emerging risks due to the pandemic. Four key areas of significant challenge emerge as global concerns: 1) economic risks, 2) environmental risks, 3) societal risks and 4) cybersecurity risks. A prolonged global recession over the next 18 months is likely with severely diminished economic activity due to COVID-19. New working patterns that rely on the Internet are more likely to be affected by cyberattacks and data fraud if proactive action is not taken. The report concludes, however, that this crisis offers a unique opportunity to shape a better world.
ILO. (2020, April 29). ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work, 3rd ed. Geneva, Switzerland: International Labour Organization.
This third edition of the ILO Monitor updates estimates and analysis on the effects of COVID-19 on the world of work. Key messages include that the proportion of workers living in countries with recommended or required workplace closures has decreased from 81% to 68% over the last two weeks. This is mainly driven by lifting workplace closures in China. The global working hours in Q2 are expected to be 10.5% lower than in the last pre-crisis quarter. This is equivalent to 305 million full-time jobs. Estimates also indicate that the Americas (12.4%) and Europe and Central Asia (11.8%) will experience the greatest loss in working hours. The report also highlights the vulnerabilities of own-account workers in emerging and developing countries.
COVID-19 Crisis Business Continuity and Trade Working Group. (2020, April 24). Restart playbook must balance risks with economic costs. Crisis Working Group Report, Communique #5. Toronto: C.D. Howe Institute.
The C.D. Howe Institute created a working group of industry experts and economists, meeting weekly to identify and prioritize the policy challenges of COVID-19. In this communique, the working group makes several recommendations for restarting the Canadian economy after the pandemic closures. Specifically, they note that provincial governments are best positioned to determine when and how to relax emergency measures. However, the Federal Government should establish appropriate pre-conditions based on the advice of public health experts. Policy makers must also define acceptable levels for the risk of transmission and provide a framework for assessing workplace risk. The Federal Government should also consider how best to phase out emergency benefits (i.e., the Canada Emergency Response Benefit and the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy).
Ding, W., Levine, R., Lin, C., & Xie, W. (2020, April 23). Corporate immunity to the COVID-19 pandemic. NBER Working Paper 27055. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
This study examines pre-2020 corporate characteristics that make firms more resilient to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors compare the stock price performance of over 6000 firms across 56 countries for Q1 of 2020 considering five characteristics: 1) financial condition (e.g., cash flow or profitability), 2) international supply chain and customer location exposure to COVID-19, 3) corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities, 4) corporate governance systems and 5) large-committed ownership structures. The study finds that firms with stronger pre-2020 financial conditions showed better stock price reactions compared to similar firms. Those whose supply chains and customers have greater exposure to COVID-19 also experienced a greater pandemic-induced stock price drop. Similarly, those with stronger CSR policies, flexible corporate structure, and large ownership also experienced better stock price reactions.
Schmitt-Grohé, D., Teoh, K., & Uribe, M. (2020, April 21). COVID-19: Testing inequality in New York City. NBER Working Paper 27019. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Using data from the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene and the American Community Survey, this paper finds that COVID-19 tests were distributed at nearly the exact same rate across income levels as measured by zip code. The 10% of the richest areas and 10% of the poorest received 11% and 10% of the tests, respectively. Although tests were distributed equally across income groups, residents in low-income neighbourhoods tested positive at a much higher rate — 65% versus 50% for higher income areas. Therefore, since COVID-19 is more prevalent in lower income neighbourhoods, the equal share of tests in effect reflects unequal access.
St-Denis, X. (2020, April 19). Sociodemographic determinants of occupational risks of exposure to COVID-19 in Canada. Department of Sociology, University of Toronto.
This paper explores how occupational exposure risks vary by labour force characteristics in the Canadian context. The author uses Census and O*Net data to provide occupational information on the levels of physical proximity to others and frequency of exposure to infection or disease. The study finds that women work in occupations associated with significantly higher risks of exposure to COVID-19 than men. Occupations in health, sales and service, education, law, and social, community and government services demonstrate higher risks of exposure than other categories.
Although workers aged 65 or older work in occupations with a lower degree of physical proximity, their frequency of exposure is slightly higher than for younger workers. There are minimal differences in the occupational risks of exposure to COVID-19 for Canadian-born versus immigrant workers. Finally, in terms of earning levels, low-income workers are employed in occupations that put them at greater risk of exposure to COVID-19. These workers are also more likely to face strong financial disincentives to be absent from work if they contract the virus, which may increase the risk of workplace transmission.
Amarasinghe, U., Motha-Pollock, A., Felder, M., & Oschinski, M. (2020, April 17). COVID-19 and Ontario’s sales and service workers: Who is most vulnerable? Toronto: MaRS Discovery District.
By focusing on Ontario’s sales and service industry, MaRS uses March 2020 Labour Force Survey (LFS) data to measure the vulnerability of workers to the risk of COVID-19 exposure. For this study, they mapped the list of essential workplaces in Ontario to industries (NAICS), and used the methodology of the New York Times and the Brookfield Institute on two scores: 1) disease exposure and 2) physical proximity to others by occupation. The findings suggest that nearly 70% of sales and service workers in Ontario (1 million) have been deemed essential. More than 400,000 of them have moderate disease exposure risk and work in high physical proximity to others. This sector includes many part-time employees, people over 60, and immigrants without citizenship or permanent resident status.
IMF. (2020, April 17). Policy responses to COVID-19. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
The IMF summarizes the key economic responses that 193 countries have taken to reduce the human and economic impact of the pandemic. This document is updated regularly and includes key policies related to COVID-19. However, the list might not fully reflect all policies implemented, as changes are made rapidly.
Jackson, J., Weiss, M., Schwarzenberg, A., & Nelson, R. (2020, April 17). Global economic effects of COVID-19. Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service.
This report summarizes the global economic effects and policy responses to the pandemic provided by governments and international institutions. The global economy could decline by 3% in 2020 before growing by 5.8% in 2021, based on IMF’s forecast of April 14, 2020. Global trade is projected to fall by 11% and oil prices are projected to fall by 42% in 2020. However, the forecast assumes that the crisis fades by the end of the first half of 2020 and that containment effects can be reversed.
Furthermore, among most developed and major developing economies, countries highly dependent on trade and commodity exports — such as Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, Mexico, and South Korea — are projected to be the most negatively affected by the economic slowdown associated with the virus. The OECD also notes that production declines in China will have spillover effects around the world given that China is a primary customer for many commodities.
Aaronson, S., & Alba, F. (2020, April 15). The unemployment impacts of COVID-19: Lessons from the Great Recession. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.
Data from previous crises — such as Hurricane Katrina and Great Recession of 2007–2009 — show that geographic areas are often impacted unevenly. Any resulting spikes the unemployment rate are temporary, however. This analysis of 138 US metropolitan areas that have experienced idiosyncratic shocks shows that unemployment rates tend to rebound after the crisis has passed.
As with previous crises, the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted metropolitan areas unevenly. For example, those metropolitan areas first affected by the virus closed non-essential businesses sooner. In addition, the economies of areas with greater dependency on energy, tourism and hospitality have suffered greater slowdowns than those relying more on agriculture or professional services. Policy makers should consider the different challenges faced by each locality as they suggest approaches to providing aid. The solutions provided should attempt to reduce any disparities between them.
Stojkoski, V., Utkovski, Z., Jolakoski, P., Tevdovski, D., & Kocarev, L. (2020, April 14). The socio-economic determinants of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. SSRN Electronic Journal.
This paper focuses on the socio-economic determinants that contribute to COVID-19 cases/deaths among countries. By leveraging Bayesian model averaging techniques and country level data, the authors identify 29 potential determinants grouped into several broad categories: healthcare infrastructure, national health statistics, societal characteristics, economic performance, demographic structure and natural environment. Their results suggest two determinants with a strong correlation to coronavirus cases: population size and government health expenditures. More populated countries show greater resistance to being infected by the virus, whereas countries with larger government health expenditures display greater susceptibility. However, no determinant could predict coronavirus deaths per capita.
Rousseau, H.-P. (2020, April 9). COVID-19: Economic policy options for managing and recovering from the crisis in Quebec and Canada. Montréal, QC: CIRANO.
The author believes that this unprecedented health crisis provides a critical opportunity for economic and democratic development. He presents a set of economic policy suggestions in response to the economic impacts of COVID-19. The plan emphasizes three components: 1) managing the health crisis, 2) financially supporting individuals and businesses affected in the short-term, and 3) improving economic infrastructure to mitigate the economic impacts of future health crises in the long-term. The new economic policy must include long-term
strategies for when the health crisis subsides and the economic recovery has begun. For example, local supply chains of food, medical supplies, or other essential goods will be needed when global supply chains are disrupted. New forms of co-operation and collaboration between the private and public sectors will also be required.
APEC. (2020, April 8). Occupational analysis. Halifax, NS: Atlantic Provinces Economic Council.
Preliminary estimates from Atlantic Canada, based on 4-digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) codes, show that about 70% of workers must perform their jobs at their place of work (e.g., manufacturing plants, construction sites, hospitals and restaurants), or must work directly with clients (e.g., hairdressers and massage therapists). These workers are at high risk of being laid off if they cannot adjust their work to meet the new health and safety measures of the COVID-19 epidemic. Even for those 30% who can arrange to work from home, there is still the risk of layoff because of the overall reduction in demand for goods and services.
Baker McKenzie. (2020, April 8). Beyond COVID-19: Supply chain resilience holds key to recovery. Chicago, IL.
Using data from Oxford Economics, Baker McKenzie found that the automotive, textile, and electronics sectors are the hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. The good news is that they are also likely to rebound by the first half of 2021. The report suggests that businesses must take quick action to tackle operational, labour, and demand/supply constraints. They must also revisit strategic planning and re-consider business models post-COVID-19. For example, work models may adopt and use more technology, agility programs and virtual meetings. The pandemic may well accelerate the digital transformation of the workplace, not just during the massive shift to self-isolation but also into the future.
Brynjolfsson, E., Horton, J., Ozimek, A., Rock, D., Sharma, G., & Tu Ye, H.-Y. (2020, April 8). COVID-19 and remote work: An early look at US data. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
A survey by MIT researchers of 25,000 Americans, conducted from April 1–5, 2020, posed a simple question: “Have you started to work from home in the last 4 weeks?” The authors found that 34% of workers have shifted to remote work due to COVID-19, and 11% have been laid-off (permanently or temporarily). Younger people were more likely to switch to remote work, while there were no significant gender differences. In the next round of surveys, more specific questions will be asked such as “what percentage of tasks can be done remotely?” and “how does remote work vary across professions and industries?”
ILO. (2020, April 7). ILO monitor 2nd edition: COVID-19 and the world of work — Updated estimates and analysis. Geneva, Switzerland: International Labour Organization.
The ILO has updated their estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on the world of work. As of April 1, 2020, lockdown measures across the world have affected 2.7 billion workers, representing 81% of the world’s workforce. The ILO estimates that global working hours in the second quarter of 2020 will decrease by 6.7% relative to the first quarter, equivalent to 195 million full-time workers.
Furthermore, the shock to labour markets is having a larger impact on employment in specific sectors such as accommodation, food services, manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, real estate and other business activities. These sectors comprise almost 38% of the global workforce.
Workers in developing countries, the report notes, are particularly at risk. These countries tend to have lower levels of social protection and higher levels of informal employment. Informal workers have a high risk both of being exposed to the virus and of falling deeper into poverty due to lockdown measures. India has the highest share of informal workers, at almost 90%. Stringent lockdown measures have greatly affected these workers.
Burning Glass Technologies. (2020, April 2). COVID-19 impact on jobs. Boston, MA.
Burning Glass is using its database to measure the economic shock of the coronavirus pandemic on weekly job postings in the United States. According to this report, job postings declined 29% during March 2020. Generally, the decline is larger in states with heavier reliance on such industries as tourism or manufacturing. However, job postings have increased for some health care roles such as pharmacists (11%), respiratory therapists (9%), and registered nurses (8%).
Burning Glass updates their public data frequently and publish blog posts on their highlighted findings.
Alon, T. M., Doepke, M., Olmstead-Rumsey, J., & Tertilt, M. (2020, April). The impact of COVID-19 on gender equality. NBER Working Paper 26947. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
The fall in employment resulting from social distancing measures in response to COVID-19 has largely affected sectors with high female employment. Further, based on the existing distribution of childcare duties, the challenges created by school and daycare closures have affected the employment of mothers to a greater extent than fathers. Since past labour market experience is a strong predictor of future earnings, the loss of work experience affecting working mothers, and especially single moms, is likely to have persistent earnings impacts beyond the crisis.
However, the authors also expect that the consequences of COVID-19 may have some benefits in the long-term by promoting greater gender equality in the labour market. First, businesses are rapidly adopting more flexible work arrangements, which are likely to persist. Second, historic gender norms in the division of household labour may change as many fathers must now take primary responsibility for childcare.
Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., Davis, S. J., & Terry, S. J. (2020, April). COVID-Induced economic uncertainty. NBER Working Paper 26983. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
This paper assesses the short- and medium-term macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 using three uncertainty indicators: 1) stock market volatility, 2) newspaper-based economic uncertainty, and 3) subjective uncertainty in business expectation surveys. The authors use data on US real GDP and an empirical model of disaster effects developed by Baker et al. (2020) to estimate the causal impact on country-level output growth. Using stock market measures to calibrate COVID-19 shocks, their results show a nearly 20% contraction (on a year-over-year basis) in US real GDP as of 2020 Q4: 9% in 2020 Q2 plus a peak contraction of 11% in Q4.
Bartik, A. W., Bertand, M., Cullen Z. B., Glaeser, E. L., Luca, M., & Stanton, C. T. (2020, April). How are small businesses adjusting to COVID-19? Early evidence from a survey. NBER Working Paper 26989. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
To better understand the impact of COVID-19 on small businesses in the US, 5,819 surveys were conducted with members of “Alignable,” a network-based platform focused on the small business ecosystem. On average, businesses reported reducing their employee count by 40% compared to the beginning of 2020. In addition, of those firms surveyed, 43% had to close temporarily, with the median businesses reporting monthly expenses over $10,000. Although most indicated that they planned to apply for government assistance through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act), they expressed concern about the administrative and logistical hassles of accessing aid.
Bethune, Z. A., & Korinek, A. (2020, April). COVID-19 infection externalities: Trading off lives vs. livelihoods. NBER Working Paper 27009. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
This paper uses epidemiological Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) models to quantify the impacts of social and economic interactions in transmitting infectious diseases. When otherwise rational individuals misevaluate the effects of their activities, the risk of infection for others is greater. If those infected engage in full social and economic activity while those susceptible reduce their activity, then full recovery will only be achieved once herd immunity is reached years later. The alternative approach is to impose restrictions on those infected to drive their activity close to zero while only slightly reducing the activity of the susceptible. This second approach is socially optimal since it contains and eradicates the disease more quickly and with a much milder recession.
Buheji, M., Cunha, K. C., Beka, G., Mavrić, B., Souza, Y. L., Silva, S. S., Hanafi, M., & Yein, T. C. (2020, April). The extent of COVID-19 pandemic socio-economic impact on global poverty: A global integrative multidisciplinary review. American Journal of Economics, 10(4): 213–224.
This paper reviews the literature on how the pandemic impacts poor communities. The authors looked at research on the economic consequences of the pandemic on four different continents. They highlight the difficulty for the poor to adhere to self-isolation and social distancing measures. Several strategies to minimize the impact of the pandemic on the livelihoods and the socioeconomic activities of the underprivileged are provided.
Cadena, A., Child, F., Craven, M., Ferrari, F., Fine, D., Franco, J., & Wilson, M. (2020, April). How to restart national economies during the coronavirus crisis. New York, NY: McKinsey & Company.
This McKinsey & Company public report presents a strategy for restarting economies in stages. The key is that public health risk inform the level of economic and social restrictions. The methodology offers a risk matrix of virus spread and public health system readiness. This corresponds to a restart strategy with four steps that determine the economic openness and population mobility. At each stage, governments can implement policies that prioritize sectors to open based on economic relevance and risk of transmission. For example, high-risk populations remain in lock-down longer and essential sectors open sooner than other economic sectors. Most importantly, the stage of re-opening for an economy depends on the region’s placement on the risk matrix.
Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Weber, M. (2020, April). Labor markets during the COVID-19 crisis: A preliminary view. NBER Working Paper 27017. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
This study uses a repeat large-scale panel survey of 80–90 thousand US households — whose purchases are tracked daily — to measure the labour impact of COVID-19. They estimate that 20 million workers lost their jobs by April 6 2020 (far more jobs than in the Great Recession of 2007–2009). The results also highlighted that many of those who lost jobs are not actively looking to find new ones. As a result, the unemployment rate rises only about 2 percentage points, while participation in the labour force has declined by 7 percentage points.
Dingel, J. I., & Neiman, B. (2020, April). How many jobs can be done at home? NBER Working Paper 26948. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Following the evaluation of social distancing measures in slowing down the spread of COVID-19, the authors look into US occupations that can be performed at home. They examine the share of total wages paid to such jobs, as well as how they vary across cities and industries. All US occupations are classified based on responses to two O*NET surveys covering the context and activities of each occupation.
The paper suggests that 34% of US jobs could be performed at home, which accounts for 44% of all wages, assuming the same number of hours worked for all occupations. The percentage is much higher for urban than rural areas. Most jobs in the finance, corporate management, professional and scientific industries could plausibly be done from home, unlike occupations in the agriculture, hospitality or retail sectors.
Export Development Canada. (2020, April). COVID-19 crisis: Challenges mount for many Canadian sectors. Ottawa: EDC.
In this report, EDC provides an initial assessment of the potential impacts of COVID-19 on different sectors of Canada’s economy. Their analysis is based on the initial positions of three factors: cash flow and working capital; profit and return ratios; and borrowing and leverage ratios. They also evaluated sectors in terms of stock market losses and potential borrowing pressures.
Based on their analysis, vulnerable sectors include the following: oil, gas and cleantech; accommodation and food services; entertainment and tourism; personal services; information and cultural industries; transportation; manufacturing (especially auto, aerospace and related parts); real estate and leasing; and agriculture and forestry exporters. In contrast, a few sectors are better positioned to help end the storm, such as education, health, social services, utilities and mining.
Fine, D., Klier, J., Mahajan, D., Raabe, N., Schubert, J., Singh, N., & Ungur, S. (2020, April). How to rebuild and reimagine jobs amid the coronavirus crisis. New York, NY: McKinsey & Company.
This McKinsey report discusses the strategies required to help support a labour and business recovery from COVID-19. They point to two main areas of focus. The first is to better understand who needs support to keep their job or to find new work, with particular emphasis on vulnerable groups and SMEs. The second is to build smart, cross-sector solutions to get that help to these individuals and organizations fast. This will be particular salient when restrictions on the movement of people begin to ease and businesses are allowed re-open. The authors also highlight the importance of ensuring that the right tools and mechanisms are place to help individuals develop the skills required to take up any new or different opportunities that might emerge.
Guerrieri, V., Lorenzoni, G., Straub, L., & Werning, I. (2020, April). Macroeconomic implications of COVID-19: Can negative supply shocks cause demand shortages? NBER Working Paper No. 26918. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
This paper addresses two theoretical questions: Can the COVID-19 supply shock lead to deficient demand? When — if at all — and how should governments intervene to correct for a recession? The authors have outlined a variety of conditions where a demand shortage leads to a reduction in output and employment that is larger than the supply shock itself (a Keynesian supply shock). Three factors would contribute to such deficient demand: 1) low substitutability, 2) incomplete markets and 3) constrained consumer liquidity.
The report also discusses the effects of various policies, arguing that the standard fiscal stimulus can be less effective. Additional models consider the effect of business closings, labour hoarding, and both private and public health concerns. The first best policy solution identified is to close down contact-intensive sectors and provide full insurance payments to affected workers.
Hamermesh, D. (2020, April). Lock-downs, loneliness and life satisfaction. NBER Working Paper 27018. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
This paper looks at the effects that lock-downs have on life satisfaction and happiness by using the 2012–2013 American Time Use Survey. Due to the lock-down measures imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic, life satisfaction increases for married people since they are spending more time together. In contrast, life satisfaction decreases for single people because they are spending more time alone. The large losses of work time and income due to this crisis, however, reverse the increased happiness for married people, and exacerbate the decreased happiness for singles.
Hassan, T. A., Hollander, S., van Lent, L., & Tahoun, A. (2020, April). Firm-level exposure to epidemic diseases: COVID-19, SARS, and H1N1. NBER Working Paper 26971. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
This paper constructs a method to measure firm-level exposure to epidemic diseases by counting the number of times the disease is mentioned in the quarterly earnings conference call that public-listed firms host with financial analysts. The authors gathered data on the transcripts of these conference calls from January 2001 to March 2020 for 11,943 firms headquartered in 84 countries.
The results show that 40% of the transcripts discuss the COVID-19 outbreak, a much larger percentage than all previous outbreaks. Concerns raised related to supply chain disruption, fall in demand, employee welfare, closures, production capacity reduction, increased uncertainty and the financial market. The authors also find evidence that firms with experience in dealing with SARS or H1N1 have more positive expectations about their ability to deal with the coronavirus outbreak.
Ludvigson S., Mai, S. & Ng, S. (2020, April). COVID19 and the Macroeconomic Effects of Costly Disasters.
In an effort to quantify the macroeconomic impact of COVID-19 on the US economy, the authors examine recent US disasters. In calibrating different shock profiles to reflect the unique nature of COVID-19, the study suggests that the economic impacts could last from two months to over a year (and vary by sector) and would be larger than any catastrophic event that has occurred in the past four decades. A conservative estimate leads to a cumulative loss in economic activity of 12.75% and an employment loss of 24 million jobs over a period of ten months.
Lund, S., Ellingrud, K., Hancock, B., & Manyika, J. (2020, April). COVID-19 and jobs: Monitoring the US impact on people and places. New York: McKinsey & Company.
This article emphasizes that the pandemic is accelerating structural shifts in the economy that were already underway. Using digital channels to reach consumers, automating operations, and allowing people to work remotely from home are examples. Moreover, some shifts in consumer behaviour and demand for new types of work may outlast the current public health crisis. Preparing for the “future of work” has gone from a distant hypothetical to a very immediate priority. Tens of millions of workers need support not only for today’s challenges but also to put themselves on a better footing for the future. Specifically, the article finds a significant overlap between workers who are vulnerable in the current downturn and those whose jobs are susceptible to automation in the future.
Lund, S., Ellingrud, K., Hancock, B., Manyika, J., & Dua, A. (2020, April). Lives and livelihoods: Assessing the near-term impact of COVID-19 on US workers. New York: McKinsey Global Institute.
Using data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, this article analyzes the vulnerability of more than 800 occupations to reductions in pay, furloughs or permanent layoffs. The analysis is based on whether or not the jobs are considered “essential” and whether they require close proximity to others. The authors found that 44 to 57 million jobs are vulnerable to reductions in hours or pay, with temporary or permanent layoffs possible. This could potentially affect up to one-third of the entire US labour force. However, this would not translate to a 30% unemployment rate since other industries face increasing demand. Businesses such as groceries, pharmacies and delivery services would hire two to three million new workers.
Massow, M., McDougall, B., & Weersink, A. (2020, April). Economic thoughts on the potential implications of COVID-19 on the Canadian dairy and poultry sectors. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics (pre-pub version).
This study explores the impact of COVID-19 on the Canadian dairy and poultry supply chain. Being a food production sector, many businesses are essential and have been able — to some extent — to mitigate economic losses relative to other sectors. The study suggests that some key structures, such as financially stable producers and shared losses, have been instrumental in determining the sector’s resilience. These structures are also likely to accelerate recovery post-pandemic. However, important potential long-run effects should be noted. For example, 1) producers are likely to shift to labour-saving technology and 2) the spike in demand for domestic food supply is likely to remain.
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. (2020, April). Adapting the use of ASYCUDA World to the COVID-19 situation: Guidelines to customs administrations. Geneva, Switzerland: UNCTAD.
During the COVID-19 crisis, most countries have kept customs administrations and cross-border agencies running to allow trade in essential goods. ASYCUDA World — a computerized customs management system that covers most foreign trade procedures — provides necessary support to better deal with this pandemic by adopting policies and procedures that ensure the smooth functioning of cross-border trade.
UNCTAD’s guidelines assist customs administrations in coping with COVID-19 measures in various ways. These include further paperless processing, reviewing risk criteria by focusing on emergency medical supplies, and reviewing organization arrangements and tax policy changes to regulate activities correspondingly. Verifying information and communication technology infrastructure adjustments, and performing trade data analysis to monitor the impacts of the crisis on the value of imported goods are also recommended. Developed countries will require additional technical and financial assistance to sustain themselves throughout the pandemic and to recover financially from this unprecedented outbreak.
WEF. (2020, April). Impact of COVID-19 on the global financial system: Recommendations for policy-makers based on industry practitioner perspectives. Geneva, Switzerland: World Economic Forum.
This briefing summarizes the key findings from several dialogues organized by the World Economic Forum about the impact of COVID-19 on the global financial system. These discussions among senior leaders from financial institutions, international organizations, central banks and other institutions led to four main policy recommendations: 1) “flattening the curve” of firm mortality; 2) making sure that the public’s financial services needs are met digitally; 3) coordinating on a global level to maintain financial stability; and 4) providing further support to emerging markets and developing economies may be required from advanced economies.
Bank of Canada. (2020, March 31). Covid-19: Actions to support the economy and financial system. Ottawa, ON.
To help both individuals and businesses in Canada amid the disruption caused by COVID-19, the Bank of Canada has enacted several measures to reduce negative economic impacts and prevent long-term damage to Canada’s productive capacity. First, on March 27 it lowered the overnight rate target to 0.25%, which reduces payments on existing and new loans throughout the economy. It has also implemented an expanded buyback program for different types of bonds, thereby reducing the risk of illiquidity by facilitating the purchase and sale of bonds in the marketplace.
The Bank of Canada also launched the Banker’s Acceptance Purchase Facility (BAPF) — a core funding market and source of financing for small and medium-sized corporate borrowers in Canada. It also established the Provincial Money Market Purchase (PMMP) program to support short-term provincial borrowing. In addition, the Bank of Canada has intervened to help financial institutions obtain funding for lending by taking such steps, among others, as lengthening the term over which it lends money to banks and expanding the list of eligible institutions that can access their lending. Finally, the Bank is working with international policy makers and key economic and financial partners to reinforce well-functioning markets during this time.
Fujita, S., Moscarini, G., & Postel-Vinay, F. (2020, March 30). The labour market policy response to COVID-19 must save aggregate matching capital. London, UK: VoxEU CEPR Policy Portal.
Developed countries are now aggressively deploying fiscal and monetary policies to prevent a global economic catastrophe caused by the coronavirus. However, the authors suggest avoiding policies that would encourage a major, persistent reallocation of employment, which could result in the sudden destruction of firm-specific human capital and its customer base.
Instead, policies should facilitate quick but temporary emergency reallocation of employment, while preserving worker attachment to their previous jobs. This can be accomplished by providing businesses with interest-free loans to cover their fixed costs and by converting those loans to grants should the business rehire its former employees when normal operations resume. Maintaining worker attachment to their previous employers would preserve the aggregate stock of firm-specific human capital, while also avoiding any persistent mismatch that could turn this temporary economic shock into a prolonged stagnation.
Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer. (2020, March 27). Scenario analysis: COVID-19 pandemic and oil price shocks. Ottawa, ON: Government of Canada.
Under assumptions that social distancing and self-isolation will remain in place through August 2020 and that members of OPEC and its partner countries will not limit the supply of oil, a real GDP growth rate of –5.1% for 2020 is one possible outcome of the COVID-19 pandemic and recent oil price shocks in Canada. In this scenario, real GDP declines by 2.5% in 2020 Q1 and then by 25% in 2020 Q2. Moreover, as oil and other commodity prices fall, the aggregate price level of the economy will fall too. Combined with real GDP declines, this will reduce the level of nominal GDP by $218 billion in 2020.
By 2020 Q3, Canada could be looking at an unemployment rate of 15%. In addition, the budget deficit for the 2019–20 fiscal year may increase to $26.7 billion and then to $112.7 billion in 2020–21. Coupled with the lower nominal GDP, these budgetary pressures may push the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to 38.1% in 2020–21. In order to ensure the economy is able to reach recovery speed given these economic and fiscal outcomes, it is likely that greater fiscal stimulus measures will be required — greater than those already provided, including the $28.5 billion in direct federal support announced on March 11 and March 18.
Angus Reid Institute. (2020, March 25). COVID-19: Those least equipped to endure economic downturn bearing the brunt of layoffs. Vancouver, BC.
According to this survey, 44% of Canadian households are working fewer hours due to the COVID-19 outbreak. Youth (aged 18–24) are the most likely to be affected: 45% report either having been laid off or working fewer hours, compared to 30% of those aged 25–34 and less than 30% of those aged 35–64.
Among those who report being laid off or working fewers hours, 66% report receiving no compensation from employers to cover the reduction in hours worked. For the remaining third who did receive compensation, 20% received full compensation, 8% received over half (but less than the full reduction in hours), and 6% received less than half of the reduction in hours. Furthermore, of those who lost work hours without receiving full compensation from their employers, 69% applied for Employment Insurance (EI).
Costa Dias, M., Joyce, R., Postel-Vinay, F., & Xu, X. (2020, March 25). The challenges for labour market policy during the Covid-19 pandemic. London, UK: The Institute for Fiscal Studies.
In the UK, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused a temporary but radical shift in economic activities, causing sharp declines in labour market demand in some sectors, while simultaneously creating shortages in others. The article suggests that the UK government should implement measures designed to temporarily reallocate laid-off workers to sectors with labour shortages. Additionally, the report recommends that the UK’s policy response should reduce permanent job losses and preserve existing employer–worker links, while at the same time removing any barriers to workers taking up temporary substitute jobs.
Kikuchi, L., & Khurana, I., (2020, March 24), The Jobs at Risk Index (JARI): Which occupations expose workers to COVID-19 most? London, UK: Autonomy.
This report quantifies occupational risk in the United Kingdom for 273 occupations based on workplace exposure to illness and physical proximity to people. A similar exercise is available in the New York Times for occupations in the United States.
Each occupation is scored on two indices — exposure and physical proximity — that are combined to generate a risk identification factor (RIF) value of between 0 and 100. The average RIF is 50; occupations with a RIF greater than 70 are deemed “high risk.” There are 28 high-risk occupations, 22 of which are considered “key workers” and therefore most likely to be required to continue working even during the lockdown.
A key finding of this report is that women are disproportionately represented among the high-risk occupations, specifically among workers who earn poverty wages (i.e., less than 2/3 of the median wage). Over one million high-risk jobs pay poverty wages, and 98% of these workers are women.
Muro, M., Maxim, R., & Whiton, J. (2020, March 24). The robots are ready as the COVID-19 recession spreads. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.
As virus-related recession fears escalate, the authors discuss the potential increase and acceleration in automation that could stem from COVID-19 despite the higher unemployment in the US. The authors argue that labour becomes relatively more expensive in the wake of significant declines in firm revenue. The increased incidence of labour-replacing automation, they say, could leave certain workers more vulnerable, including youth and populations over-represented among low-skilled occupations.
Agopsowicz, A. (2020, March 20). COVID-19’s threat to Canada’s vulnerable workers. Montreal, QC/Toronto, ON: Royal Bank of Canada.
Service sector workers and new graduates are two of the groups most vulnerable to the negative economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis, according to this report from RBC.
The service sector is expected to experience a massive collapse in demand. As a result, many workers in this sector are at high risk of losing their jobs. Furthermore, many of those in working the service sector lack the security and protection of full-time, permanent employment. In Canada, two million individuals are employed as casual and contract workers; 93% of casual workers and 85% of contractors work in the service sector.
Students and new graduates are also likely to experience losses in wages and employment. As summer approaches, student-contract workers are likely to lose the income typically earned from summer jobs. Nearly one million youth worked in seasonal or contract jobs in the summer of 2019; the outlook for the summer of 2020 is uncertain. It was also anticipated that 500,000 new graduates would join the labour force in 2020. These new graduates face the prospect of entering the job market at its weakest point, which can in turn lead to prolonged underemployment.
ILO. (2020, March 19). COVID-19 and world of work: Impact and policy responses. Geneva, Switzerland: International Labour Organization.
The COVID-19 virus will impact the world of work in terms of quantity of jobs, quality of work, and effects on vulnerable workers in the labour market. The ILO estimates a significant rise in unemployment and underemployment based on GDP growth in the wake of the virus. A decrease in wages and working hours and an increase in self-employment are also expected.
The ILO lays out several key policies to mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 on the world of work: 1) stimulate demand and protect workers and enterprises via a human-centred approach; 2) focus policy responses on health protection measures and economic support for both demand and supply; 3) monitor carefully for strong and sustained impacts, and for direct and indirect effects of all policy interventions; 4) build confidence through trust and dialogue; 5) protect workers in accordance with WHO recommendations; 6) stimulate the economy and labour demand through fiscal and monetary policies; 7) protect employment and incomes for enterprises and workers impacted by the indirect effects of COVID-19 such factory closures, disrupted supply chains, travel bans, cancellation of public events, etc.
Gopinath, G. (2020, March 18). Limiting the economic fallout of the coronavirus with large targeted policies. In R. Baldwin & B. Weder di Mauro (Eds.), Mitigating the COVID economic crisis: Act fast and do whatever it takes (pp. 41–47). London, UK: CEPR Press (Centre for Economic Policy Research).
The chapter emphasizes that the drop in manufacturing sectors because of COVID-19 is comparable to the start of the global financial crisis in 2008. However, the decline in service sectors appears larger this time. The pandemic has caused both supply and demand shocks.
On the supply side, since many firms rely on intermediate goods produced domestically or internationally, business disruptions have lowered production. On the demand side, the loss of income, fear of contagion and increased uncertainty are all sources of lower consumption.
In addition to the sectoral effects, it is expected that firms will reduce their spending and investment due to expected lower demand. In turn, this would worsen business closures and job losses. The report also provides recommendations for how the international community can help countries with limited health capacity.
Stewart, M. (2020, March 17). Canadian outlook summary: Spring 2020. Ottawa, ON: Conference Board of Canada.
With the outbreak of COVID-19, the Conference Board of Canada predicts GDP to increase by only 0.3% in 2020, and then rebound to 2.5% in 2021. It expects that approximately 138,000 jobs will be created in 2020, down from 391,000 in 2019 (a 65% decrease). Nevertheless, this decline in employment is expected to have minimal impact on wage growth, which was roughly twice the rate of inflation in 2019. While the report doesn’t expect wage growth to be as strong in 2020, wages are still expected to grow by 3.1% overall.
This outlook also highlights that the uncertainty of the COVID-19 outbreak will delay investment decisions, particularly in the energy sector. The oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia — with its surge in oil output, just as demand collapsed because of the COVID-19 crisis — is also hitting the energy sector. As a result, the price of oil has fallen by more than half. If this dispute is not soon resolved, the report argues that energy companies will be forced to cut production even more than anticipated, likely causing Canada to enter a recession in the third quarter of 2020.
Macdonald, D. (2020, March 16). Covid-19 and the Canadian workforce. Ottawa, ON: Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives.
As a result of COVID-19, many workers will become unemployed and will be forced to turn to Employment Insurance (EI) to make ends meet. The report notes that policy interventions and changes made to EI during the SARS outbreak in 2003 were effective in supporting those affected by the economic fallout from that health crisis.
Drawing on this experience, the author suggests implementing the nine following changes to EI: 1) eliminate the one-week waiting period for sickness benefits; 2) increase work-sharing from 38 to 76 weeks; 3) waive the medical note requirement for sickness benefits; 4) implement an emergency EI benefit for those who would not otherwise qualify; 5) take a pro-active approach to work-sharing; 6) lower the number of hours required to 360 to qualify for benefits ; 7) broadly define “quarantine” to facilitate greater access to EI sickness benefits; 8) implement a COVID-19 hotline; and 9) exempt EI benefits for COVID-19 from counting against future EI benefits.
Note: Since this report was published, the Government of Canada has begun to make changes to EI eligibility criteria. For up-to-date information see the EI Programs page.
European Commission. (2020, March 13). Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the European Council, the Council, the European Central Bank, the European Investment Bank and the Eurogroup: Coordinated economic response to the COVID-19 outbreak. Brussels, Belgium.
his report lays out the European Commission’s measures for ensuring the necessary healthcare supplies, alleviating the negative impact on employment, supporting the banking sector and businesses (especially small and medium-sized enterprises [SMEs]) with liquidity and providing aid to EU members.
To reduce the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Commission will assist EU members in preventing unemployment through the EU’s structural funds, including the European Social Fund and a new Coronavirus Response Investment Initiative (CRII). Under the CRII, the Commission will fund €37 billion to support the healthcare system, provide money to SMEs hit hard by the shock, and help temporarily reduce working hours while still supporting workers’ incomes.
The Commission also proposes to incorporate the public health crisis within the scope of the EU Solidarity Fund, which will make €800 million available (it is not yet clear how these funds will be used). Furthermore, the Commission may also mobilize the European Globalization Adjustment Fund to help laid off and self-employed workers. Under this fund, an additional €179 million could be made available. The Commission is also preparing a legislative proposal for a European Unemployment Reinsurance Scheme to help workers and those who lose their jobs due to the pandemic.
Department of Finance Canada. (2020). Economic and Fiscal Snapshot 2020. Ottawa, ON: Government of Canada.
This report reflects on the policies and initiatives taken by the federal government to protect and support Canadians and Canadian businesses from the impacts of the pandemic. Canada’s COVID-19 Economic Response Plan was designed to provide rapid support that targeted those who need it the most. Offering an overview of the health and economic situation in Canada throughout the pandemic, the report emphasizes the vulnerable groups who have experienced some of the most significant health, social and economic impacts.